1 00:00:08,810 --> 00:00:06,580 [Music] 2 00:00:10,370 --> 00:00:08,820 thank you to the organizers for inviting 3 00:00:12,619 --> 00:00:10,380 me to give this incredibly difficult 4 00:00:13,970 --> 00:00:12,629 topic to talk about because observing 5 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:13,980 things that we have very limited 6 00:00:19,220 --> 00:00:16,650 observations of made this very 7 00:00:22,370 --> 00:00:19,230 interesting to prepare so what I'm going 8 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:22,380 to do is I'm going to take you from our 9 00:00:29,810 --> 00:00:25,290 giant to our rocks I have some I don't 10 00:00:31,910 --> 00:00:29,820 know giant rocks maybe so I'm gonna the 11 00:00:34,430 --> 00:00:31,920 exo climbers conference series really 12 00:00:36,890 --> 00:00:34,440 focuses around the two biggest questions 13 00:00:39,110 --> 00:00:36,900 that we have in astronomy related to 14 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:39,120 planetary science now how do stars and 15 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:42,210 planets form and in his life unique to 16 00:00:46,610 --> 00:00:44,489 our planet and we are discussing all of 17 00:00:48,140 --> 00:00:46,620 those things that we need to do that sit 18 00:00:50,690 --> 00:00:48,150 right between these two massive 19 00:00:52,580 --> 00:00:50,700 questions so we want to break it down a 20 00:00:55,250 --> 00:00:52,590 little bit more what are the 21 00:00:56,630 --> 00:00:55,260 demographics of hunnits how many 22 00:00:58,940 --> 00:00:56,640 different types of planets are out there 23 00:01:02,330 --> 00:00:58,950 order their radii what are their masses 24 00:01:04,759 --> 00:01:02,340 what kind of stars are their rounds what 25 00:01:08,300 --> 00:01:04,769 are the atmosphere is made of how many 26 00:01:10,850 --> 00:01:08,310 are there what are they made of and can 27 00:01:13,370 --> 00:01:10,860 we make any links whatsoever between 28 00:01:14,719 --> 00:01:13,380 those two these big questions can we 29 00:01:16,219 --> 00:01:14,729 take the links that we've got of the 30 00:01:18,530 --> 00:01:16,229 demographics the types of planets that 31 00:01:21,469 --> 00:01:18,540 are being formed how they might be being 32 00:01:22,940 --> 00:01:21,479 formed their atmospheric constituents 33 00:01:25,820 --> 00:01:22,950 that we can measure 34 00:01:27,710 --> 00:01:25,830 hopefully with telescopes can we take 35 00:01:29,810 --> 00:01:27,720 any of that information and pass it back 36 00:01:31,670 --> 00:01:29,820 between these two questions and that's 37 00:01:33,830 --> 00:01:31,680 really fundamentally what we're trying 38 00:01:35,300 --> 00:01:33,840 to do and I think you've seen many many 39 00:01:37,250 --> 00:01:35,310 talk this week which are trying to do 40 00:01:42,050 --> 00:01:37,260 parts of that and putting the pieces 41 00:01:44,810 --> 00:01:42,060 together so this is the famous prop from 42 00:01:46,700 --> 00:01:44,820 Fulton a tower this is the 2017 one 43 00:01:49,940 --> 00:01:46,710 because I added it and it wasn't much 44 00:01:52,190 --> 00:01:49,950 neater want to edit and we've got our 45 00:01:53,899 --> 00:01:52,200 rocks down in this end from our solar 46 00:01:56,359 --> 00:01:53,909 system we've got moons in there as well 47 00:01:58,640 --> 00:01:56,369 all things with atmospheres we saw also 48 00:02:00,410 --> 00:01:58,650 in Sarah Hurst talked that we've got to 49 00:02:02,690 --> 00:02:00,420 toast the atmosphere as well or consider 50 00:02:06,039 --> 00:02:02,700 even these smaller bodies we've got our 51 00:02:09,589 --> 00:02:06,049 Giants over here is hydrogen helium 52 00:02:12,020 --> 00:02:09,599 dominated atmospheres and we've got this 53 00:02:14,030 --> 00:02:12,030 big gap that we're seeing we don't have 54 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:14,040 the majority of planets that are be 55 00:02:17,540 --> 00:02:16,770 found in our galaxy in our solar systems 56 00:02:19,910 --> 00:02:17,550 compared to 57 00:02:22,190 --> 00:02:19,920 some of those big middle ground that we 58 00:02:30,970 --> 00:02:22,200 need to try and understand and we can 59 00:02:38,390 --> 00:02:33,950 we can look at this in terms of the 60 00:02:41,180 --> 00:02:38,400 planetary composition as well and if we 61 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:41,190 start looking at the atmospheres of 62 00:02:44,030 --> 00:02:43,050 those planets in our solar system and 63 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:44,040 trying to understand what the 64 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:46,050 atmospheres of those planets are made up 65 00:02:51,620 --> 00:02:48,810 of you can see that we've got those 66 00:02:54,470 --> 00:02:51,630 hydrogen helium dominated atmospheres 67 00:02:57,230 --> 00:02:54,480 we've got majority of elements are 68 00:02:59,570 --> 00:02:57,240 hydrogen helium carbon nitrogen oxygen 69 00:03:02,000 --> 00:02:59,580 in those giant planet atmospheres and 70 00:03:04,310 --> 00:03:02,010 then in the smaller planets where we've 71 00:03:07,100 --> 00:03:04,320 got detailed information so Venus and 72 00:03:09,530 --> 00:03:07,110 Earth for example we have that carbon 73 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:09,540 nitrogen oxygen again and we've got 74 00:03:14,180 --> 00:03:12,330 other trace gases in there and I had to 75 00:03:16,430 --> 00:03:14,190 modify the earth one here so I'm sorry 76 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:16,440 that it's a little bit disordered but I 77 00:03:21,260 --> 00:03:18,570 had to modify it because it was actually 78 00:03:23,090 --> 00:03:21,270 showing you what the composition of the 79 00:03:24,350 --> 00:03:23,100 crust was and I really was interested in 80 00:03:27,230 --> 00:03:24,360 the atmosphere because what's really 81 00:03:28,790 --> 00:03:27,240 important it was we're measuring the 82 00:03:30,620 --> 00:03:28,800 atmospheres of these planets with our 83 00:03:32,630 --> 00:03:30,630 observations right now with measuring 84 00:03:34,610 --> 00:03:32,640 the atmospheric temperature or edging 85 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:34,620 the atmospheric composition so it's 86 00:03:38,980 --> 00:03:36,090 really important to try and understand 87 00:03:41,150 --> 00:03:38,990 the solar system context for that and 88 00:03:43,220 --> 00:03:41,160 try and think about what the difference 89 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:43,230 is here we're losing our hydrogen and 90 00:03:47,390 --> 00:03:45,690 helium and we're increasing the amount 91 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:47,400 we have of this carbon nitrogen oxygen 92 00:03:52,130 --> 00:03:49,170 they're not missing from the giant 93 00:03:54,230 --> 00:03:52,140 planets but they're dominated by this 94 00:03:56,210 --> 00:03:54,240 hydrogen helium so we've got to see 95 00:03:58,310 --> 00:03:56,220 about what this transition between the 96 00:03:59,449 --> 00:03:58,320 two is and this also comes down to a lot 97 00:04:01,010 --> 00:03:59,459 of stuff that we've been seeing about 98 00:04:03,170 --> 00:04:01,020 the internal composition of these 99 00:04:05,660 --> 00:04:03,180 planets where is that boundary what 100 00:04:07,670 --> 00:04:05,670 happens as we move from these neptune 101 00:04:09,620 --> 00:04:07,680 mathworld which have these large ice 102 00:04:11,780 --> 00:04:09,630 contents in our solar system what 103 00:04:14,150 --> 00:04:11,790 happens when we move to something more 104 00:04:15,770 --> 00:04:14,160 rock content and how does it change what 105 00:04:17,300 --> 00:04:15,780 we're going to be observing so we can 106 00:04:20,570 --> 00:04:17,310 use the solar system as a basis for 107 00:04:22,970 --> 00:04:20,580 trying to bridge these gaps but it's 108 00:04:25,370 --> 00:04:22,980 really ugly in exoplanets that we're 109 00:04:27,469 --> 00:04:25,380 going to be able to add all this 110 00:04:29,659 --> 00:04:27,479 together I'm sorry it's all keynote is 111 00:04:32,179 --> 00:04:29,669 the is the main issue 112 00:04:36,980 --> 00:04:32,189 don't get a new MacBook they don't like 113 00:04:38,719 --> 00:04:36,990 to connect to old projectors um so we've 114 00:04:40,219 --> 00:04:38,729 got these different things that we can 115 00:04:42,589 --> 00:04:40,229 see in our solar system and we have 116 00:04:44,570 --> 00:04:42,599 these different theories where how that 117 00:04:46,219 --> 00:04:44,580 is being affected by the formation 118 00:04:48,290 --> 00:04:46,229 processes visit of the cartoon that I 119 00:04:51,260 --> 00:04:48,300 made which brings together a lot of 120 00:04:53,570 --> 00:04:51,270 different work about the ice lines where 121 00:04:55,879 --> 00:04:53,580 a planet forms and how that informs what 122 00:04:59,119 --> 00:04:55,889 the atmosphere might be made of so the 123 00:05:01,730 --> 00:04:59,129 sitio ratio might inform us about where 124 00:05:03,740 --> 00:05:01,740 in the disk it formed beyond ice lines 125 00:05:05,929 --> 00:05:03,750 or interior to them so rocky planets we 126 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:05,939 think from all interior to those ice 127 00:05:10,249 --> 00:05:08,610 lines how can we use the information 128 00:05:12,469 --> 00:05:10,259 we're measuring in the atmosphere to try 129 00:05:14,959 --> 00:05:12,479 and understand that and the two 130 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:14,969 different formation processes which 131 00:05:18,409 --> 00:05:16,650 input themselves on the atmosphere 132 00:05:20,450 --> 00:05:18,419 differently so we can look at the 133 00:05:22,850 --> 00:05:20,460 atmospheres of these planets and try and 134 00:05:25,700 --> 00:05:22,860 understand and see if we can work out 135 00:05:28,670 --> 00:05:25,710 how they formed where they formed and 136 00:05:30,950 --> 00:05:28,680 that really helped inform us about what 137 00:05:32,869 --> 00:05:30,960 that demographic of planets really means 138 00:05:34,999 --> 00:05:32,879 when we compare it to our subsystem and 139 00:05:36,649 --> 00:05:35,009 with the big questions that come from 140 00:05:38,300 --> 00:05:36,659 this when with dirt towards these 141 00:05:40,899 --> 00:05:38,310 smaller planets because this has really 142 00:05:43,159 --> 00:05:40,909 been focused around these giant planets 143 00:05:44,749 --> 00:05:43,169 don't slip supply to those mini 144 00:05:47,389 --> 00:05:44,759 Neptune's does this apply to terrestrial 145 00:05:49,820 --> 00:05:47,399 planets at all and at what mass radius 146 00:05:51,829 --> 00:05:49,830 of a planet do these formation markets 147 00:05:54,170 --> 00:05:51,839 start to break down and we have to start 148 00:05:55,820 --> 00:05:54,180 asking different questions and I think 149 00:05:57,829 --> 00:05:55,830 we've seen a lot of those questions this 150 00:06:01,459 --> 00:05:57,839 week and we're going to be picking those 151 00:06:04,459 --> 00:06:01,469 apart so I want to go back and look at 152 00:06:07,159 --> 00:06:04,469 the kind of contingent of planets that 153 00:06:08,779 --> 00:06:07,169 we've got and this is a kind of old now 154 00:06:12,409 --> 00:06:08,789 it doesn't have a single test planet on 155 00:06:15,170 --> 00:06:12,419 it I'm afraid but it's a much easier way 156 00:06:17,510 --> 00:06:15,180 of showing it I like showing this 157 00:06:19,639 --> 00:06:17,520 because it really shows that we are 158 00:06:21,950 --> 00:06:19,649 observational II biased away from our 159 00:06:24,230 --> 00:06:21,960 solar system right now our solar system 160 00:06:25,339 --> 00:06:24,240 is really fitting quite far away in this 161 00:06:26,749 --> 00:06:25,349 program but I'm going to show other 162 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:26,759 diagram paper where it's right in the 163 00:06:30,740 --> 00:06:28,289 mix of the types of planets that we're 164 00:06:33,379 --> 00:06:30,750 looking at and you can see that that 165 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:33,389 region I've cut off for the the Neptune 166 00:06:39,110 --> 00:06:36,930 evaporation desert or core erosion or 167 00:06:40,610 --> 00:06:39,120 many different kinds of heating which 168 00:06:42,840 --> 00:06:40,620 might lose your atmosphere that we've 169 00:06:45,749 --> 00:06:42,850 seen and I've highlight 170 00:06:50,100 --> 00:06:45,759 the ones that we have well measured 171 00:06:52,170 --> 00:06:50,110 massive and radii and those are really 172 00:06:53,969 --> 00:06:52,180 important for any kind of 173 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:53,979 characterization we're not just trying 174 00:06:57,420 --> 00:06:55,930 to observe these planets as a 175 00:06:58,620 --> 00:06:57,430 demographic we want to know more about 176 00:07:00,270 --> 00:06:58,630 them we need to know more about their 177 00:07:03,210 --> 00:07:00,280 atmosphere so we can start bridging the 178 00:07:05,550 --> 00:07:03,220 gap between these two big questions so 179 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:05,560 we need the mass and the radii and that 180 00:07:10,770 --> 00:07:07,810 actually adds some complications because 181 00:07:13,439 --> 00:07:10,780 the masses are actually not easy to do 182 00:07:16,170 --> 00:07:13,449 for small planets and this is some work 183 00:07:19,379 --> 00:07:16,180 that Rafael Hayward shared with me so 184 00:07:23,279 --> 00:07:19,389 I'd like to share with you that looking 185 00:07:26,490 --> 00:07:23,289 at the different aspects of noise that 186 00:07:28,770 --> 00:07:26,500 you get from a star and this goes right 187 00:07:31,170 --> 00:07:28,780 down to the fundamental granulation the 188 00:07:34,589 --> 00:07:31,180 circulation patterns in the star that 189 00:07:36,540 --> 00:07:34,599 you can see here that adds noise to your 190 00:07:37,980 --> 00:07:36,550 radial velocity measurement so when 191 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:37,990 you're trying to measure the mass of a 192 00:07:42,570 --> 00:07:39,490 planet through the radial velocity 193 00:07:44,370 --> 00:07:42,580 method you've got to consider all of the 194 00:07:47,550 --> 00:07:44,380 different noise parameters of the stars 195 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:47,560 that you're looking at and we really 196 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:49,930 don't understand the Stars enough and 197 00:07:52,830 --> 00:07:51,610 that's one of the really big take homes 198 00:07:55,260 --> 00:07:52,840 when we're looking at small planets is 199 00:07:58,080 --> 00:07:55,270 we've got to know the stars really well 200 00:08:00,540 --> 00:07:58,090 but what Raphael is doing is using 201 00:08:03,300 --> 00:08:00,550 observations of the Sun to try and 202 00:08:04,860 --> 00:08:03,310 understand and simulate how these might 203 00:08:06,689 --> 00:08:04,870 affect your rate of velocity data so 204 00:08:07,830 --> 00:08:06,699 that you can take that out and we can 205 00:08:10,409 --> 00:08:07,840 actually get way more accurate 206 00:08:11,459 --> 00:08:10,419 measurements and understand the size of 207 00:08:13,830 --> 00:08:11,469 these planets a little bit better 208 00:08:16,260 --> 00:08:13,840 because that's so important and we need 209 00:08:18,600 --> 00:08:16,270 that math it's essential to interpreting 210 00:08:20,909 --> 00:08:18,610 the atmosphere it is essential to know 211 00:08:22,589 --> 00:08:20,919 the math when we look at a transmission 212 00:08:25,439 --> 00:08:22,599 spectrum emission spectrum of a 213 00:08:27,450 --> 00:08:25,449 planetary atmosphere and we've got a 214 00:08:28,469 --> 00:08:27,460 nice roadmap for radial velocities 215 00:08:30,899 --> 00:08:28,479 moving into the future 216 00:08:33,750 --> 00:08:30,909 this isn't just old stuff we're 217 00:08:36,810 --> 00:08:33,760 constantly building and applying new 218 00:08:38,610 --> 00:08:36,820 radial velocity measurements and what 219 00:08:40,980 --> 00:08:38,620 you can see at the top there is some 220 00:08:44,100 --> 00:08:40,990 simulations of test yields and speculoos 221 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:44,110 yields and those are just for the M 222 00:08:48,949 --> 00:08:45,970 stars so these you can see on the side 223 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:48,959 very cold stars these red stars and 224 00:08:55,170 --> 00:08:53,050 we're going to be pushing in to the 225 00:08:56,190 --> 00:08:55,180 masses of these stars and that's really 226 00:08:58,170 --> 00:08:56,200 good news 227 00:09:01,500 --> 00:08:58,180 for trying to understand and 228 00:09:02,699 --> 00:09:01,510 characterize these small planets so in 229 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:02,709 the future we've got a number of 230 00:09:08,310 --> 00:09:04,810 instruments coming onboard we got harps 231 00:09:11,490 --> 00:09:08,320 3 which is something that the UK is part 232 00:09:13,050 --> 00:09:11,500 of as well that's beyond the Palmer and 233 00:09:16,199 --> 00:09:13,060 we thought gee craft coming up which 234 00:09:21,090 --> 00:09:16,209 will really help push us as far as we 235 00:09:23,430 --> 00:09:21,100 can down to the small size world so it's 236 00:09:25,019 --> 00:09:23,440 really important that we keep pushing we 237 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:25,029 keep pushing for radial velocity 238 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:26,410 instruments and keep pushing for radial 239 00:09:30,449 --> 00:09:27,970 velocity measurements so we can get the 240 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:30,459 masses of these systems where we might 241 00:09:35,790 --> 00:09:32,290 not be able to get transit climbing 242 00:09:38,250 --> 00:09:35,800 variations from multiple planets but 243 00:09:41,759 --> 00:09:38,260 it's not just the mass what we need we 244 00:09:46,680 --> 00:09:41,769 need the transit we need the size of the 245 00:09:48,449 --> 00:09:46,690 planet and if we don't have the radius 246 00:09:51,150 --> 00:09:48,459 of the planet we are still going to be 247 00:09:54,150 --> 00:09:51,160 reliant on those mass radius models to 248 00:09:55,829 --> 00:09:54,160 try and interpret a planet that we've 249 00:09:57,509 --> 00:09:55,839 discovered with other methods so we 250 00:09:59,519 --> 00:09:57,519 might if we if we've just got the mass 251 00:10:03,300 --> 00:09:59,529 that's still not enough we need both of 252 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:03,310 these things and we need to in transit 253 00:10:08,519 --> 00:10:05,970 observations get the stellar radii right 254 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:08,529 so that we can get the planetary radii 255 00:10:12,930 --> 00:10:10,810 right and this is a study done by Sam RL 256 00:10:15,090 --> 00:10:12,940 at the University of Exeter that's just 257 00:10:16,949 --> 00:10:15,100 gone up on the archive where they show 258 00:10:18,689 --> 00:10:16,959 that the Gaia measurement using the Gaia 259 00:10:22,439 --> 00:10:18,699 measurements the previous radius 260 00:10:25,290 --> 00:10:22,449 measurements for many of the transiting 261 00:10:26,699 --> 00:10:25,300 exoplanet host stars are off by 10% and 262 00:10:29,009 --> 00:10:26,709 they actually bring that measurement 263 00:10:30,630 --> 00:10:29,019 down to an uncertainty of plus or minus 264 00:10:32,430 --> 00:10:30,640 two point seven percent so I recommend 265 00:10:34,860 --> 00:10:32,440 you go check out that paper and have a 266 00:10:36,420 --> 00:10:34,870 look but the reason this is important is 267 00:10:38,009 --> 00:10:36,430 because we're trying to understand that 268 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:38,019 big question is life unique to our 269 00:10:44,189 --> 00:10:40,930 planet we need to know about what the 270 00:10:46,769 --> 00:10:44,199 changes if we change the size how does 271 00:10:49,230 --> 00:10:46,779 that affect whether something is habit 272 00:10:52,530 --> 00:10:49,240 or not how does that change that we 273 00:10:56,100 --> 00:10:52,540 don't know if this is a linear trend I 274 00:10:58,530 --> 00:10:56,110 doubt it very much I think it's the 275 00:11:00,300 --> 00:10:58,540 really squiggly one and then each 276 00:11:02,699 --> 00:11:00,310 planets going to give us a bit of a 277 00:11:05,189 --> 00:11:02,709 headache so we've got to look at lots of 278 00:11:08,189 --> 00:11:05,199 them to try and understand this so we 279 00:11:10,050 --> 00:11:08,199 need the mass on the radius so I'm going 280 00:11:11,340 --> 00:11:10,060 to take you through some 281 00:11:14,340 --> 00:11:11,350 that we've done I'm gonna take you free 282 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:14,350 nice and nice and slowly because I know 283 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:16,930 this is quite a theory heavy crowd so 284 00:11:20,730 --> 00:11:18,730 let's start with putting all of those 285 00:11:25,380 --> 00:11:20,740 dark black dots on the mass radius 286 00:11:28,350 --> 00:11:25,390 diagram you can see I put some divisions 287 00:11:29,910 --> 00:11:28,360 up there as well if we stick our solar 288 00:11:32,130 --> 00:11:29,920 system in there you can see that we're 289 00:11:34,680 --> 00:11:32,140 actually capturing quite a nice range in 290 00:11:36,540 --> 00:11:34,690 there of our solar system but again 291 00:11:38,910 --> 00:11:36,550 remember that first bigger our solar 292 00:11:40,650 --> 00:11:38,920 system's way off to the side so the very 293 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:40,660 different temperature regimes that we're 294 00:11:46,830 --> 00:11:44,890 talking about and if we pick pick your 295 00:11:48,900 --> 00:11:46,840 favorite models pick any models they all 296 00:11:51,060 --> 00:11:48,910 fill out this space somehow there's a 297 00:11:52,350 --> 00:11:51,070 nice big blur of models that go through 298 00:11:54,420 --> 00:11:52,360 their space I just picked these ones 299 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:54,430 because they're very easy to to cross on 300 00:11:59,460 --> 00:11:56,650 up there we've got some of our solar 301 00:12:01,980 --> 00:11:59,470 system moves in there demonstrating how 302 00:12:04,700 --> 00:12:01,990 those lines go through the mass radius 303 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:04,710 relations of different composition of 304 00:12:09,210 --> 00:12:07,090 planets so the mass radius gives you 305 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:09,220 nice density and we can get a bulk 306 00:12:14,010 --> 00:12:11,410 composition from that and you can see 307 00:12:15,420 --> 00:12:14,020 that our Uranus and Neptune sit right in 308 00:12:18,780 --> 00:12:15,430 the middle of some of these models that 309 00:12:21,330 --> 00:12:18,790 are put up here and it's really the 310 00:12:24,330 --> 00:12:21,340 spread that I want you to focus on there 311 00:12:26,340 --> 00:12:24,340 in all of these regions we've split it 312 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:26,350 in terms of mass down the bottom here 313 00:12:30,270 --> 00:12:28,090 we've got those nice lines which tell 314 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:30,280 you what kind of mass box we want to put 315 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:32,410 you in do you want our us super for mini 316 00:12:36,930 --> 00:12:34,090 Neptune and Neptune or Saturn 317 00:12:40,860 --> 00:12:36,940 that's your mass box but the spread in 318 00:12:43,470 --> 00:12:40,870 radii across that is quite vast and how 319 00:12:44,910 --> 00:12:43,480 does that affect how we're defining 320 00:12:48,060 --> 00:12:44,920 these planets and what that actually 321 00:12:52,620 --> 00:12:48,070 means what types of worlds these are 322 00:12:54,780 --> 00:12:52,630 that we're looking at so I'm going to 323 00:12:57,930 --> 00:12:54,790 take you through some of them I'm going 324 00:12:59,760 --> 00:12:57,940 to take you through planets from our 325 00:13:02,400 --> 00:12:59,770 Neptune regime where we've got some nice 326 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:02,410 measurements of their atmospheres down 327 00:13:08,670 --> 00:13:05,530 to our terrestrial regime where things 328 00:13:10,110 --> 00:13:08,680 get a little bit more tricky and it 329 00:13:12,860 --> 00:13:10,120 gives observers a little bit of a 330 00:13:15,500 --> 00:13:12,870 headache when we get the data so 331 00:13:18,030 --> 00:13:15,510 starting with our nice beautiful 332 00:13:21,510 --> 00:13:18,040 hydrogen dominated atmosphere big 333 00:13:23,140 --> 00:13:21,520 signals lots of photons coming streaming 334 00:13:25,780 --> 00:13:23,150 through the atmosphere 335 00:13:30,220 --> 00:13:25,790 zeorge by the atmosphere and telling us 336 00:13:31,300 --> 00:13:30,230 what is in that atmosphere we've got the 337 00:13:34,660 --> 00:13:31,310 largest one that I'm going to talk about 338 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:34,670 hat 26 up the top they're really nice 339 00:13:40,090 --> 00:13:38,210 clean clear water absorption feature we 340 00:13:42,130 --> 00:13:40,100 can get an understanding of the 341 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:42,140 abundance of water in the atmosphere of 342 00:13:47,410 --> 00:13:45,770 that planet and as you go down as you go 343 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:47,420 through and you can see it's labeled 344 00:13:53,050 --> 00:13:50,810 really nicely thanks to in cross Jordan 345 00:13:55,540 --> 00:13:53,060 lorac Ryberg in terms of temperature as 346 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:55,550 we go down when we get colder we get 347 00:14:00,160 --> 00:13:57,290 flatter and flat the transmission 348 00:14:02,170 --> 00:14:00,170 spectra and what is happening there what 349 00:14:05,410 --> 00:14:02,180 is causing this is it that the planets 350 00:14:06,460 --> 00:14:05,420 don't have atmospheres even though we we 351 00:14:09,340 --> 00:14:06,470 know that they're going to be hard and 352 00:14:11,050 --> 00:14:09,350 helium devices not the case so there's 353 00:14:12,790 --> 00:14:11,060 got to be a pasty sources in there that 354 00:14:15,820 --> 00:14:12,800 are causing problems and we heard some 355 00:14:17,110 --> 00:14:15,830 things about the Haze's that will be 356 00:14:20,590 --> 00:14:17,120 causing problems there's a photo 357 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:20,600 chemically generated materials and also 358 00:14:25,540 --> 00:14:23,570 about clouds and Jonathan Courtney told 359 00:14:26,980 --> 00:14:25,550 us that if we increase the internal 360 00:14:28,750 --> 00:14:26,990 temperature of these planets those 361 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:28,760 clouds going to be a bit more pesky so 362 00:14:33,010 --> 00:14:30,890 we've got a really trying to understand 363 00:14:36,090 --> 00:14:33,020 the dynamics in town to these 364 00:14:38,230 --> 00:14:36,100 atmospheres to really pick them apart 365 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:38,240 absolutely I'm gonna take you through 366 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:40,970 two of them at the bottom here first I 367 00:14:45,490 --> 00:14:43,010 want to look at this Uranus mass planet 368 00:14:47,380 --> 00:14:45,500 and we got a nice talk from beyond 369 00:14:49,780 --> 00:14:47,390 earlier in the week looking at the new 370 00:14:52,630 --> 00:14:49,790 results that it shows at the top here 371 00:14:55,690 --> 00:14:52,640 we've got that water absorption feature 372 00:14:58,240 --> 00:14:55,700 there and then this is the the original 373 00:14:59,920 --> 00:14:58,250 data that was taken back in 2013 2014 374 00:15:03,460 --> 00:14:59,930 when this planet was first discovered 375 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:03,470 and I'm gonna show this these are going 376 00:15:08,470 --> 00:15:05,570 to be on all of the slides for the next 377 00:15:09,970 --> 00:15:08,480 couple of minutes and I'm gonna move 378 00:15:12,250 --> 00:15:09,980 down this mass range and it's really 379 00:15:14,590 --> 00:15:12,260 important to note each of these radii 380 00:15:15,550 --> 00:15:14,600 and math because we're going to jump 381 00:15:17,380 --> 00:15:15,560 around a bit but it's going to 382 00:15:19,810 --> 00:15:17,390 completely change what kind of planet 383 00:15:21,820 --> 00:15:19,820 that we're looking at so I want you want 384 00:15:24,070 --> 00:15:21,830 keep note of that but what's really and 385 00:15:31,180 --> 00:15:24,080 beyond pointed this out important here 386 00:15:35,770 --> 00:15:31,190 is at 600 Kelvin we fully expect this to 387 00:15:38,830 --> 00:15:35,780 have methane in the atmosphere this is 388 00:15:41,530 --> 00:15:38,840 the chemical equilibrium diagram which 389 00:15:43,420 --> 00:15:41,540 says we should see methane in these 390 00:15:46,930 --> 00:15:43,430 cooler atmospheres and we're just not 391 00:15:48,430 --> 00:15:46,940 we're not seeing it and we haven't seen 392 00:15:50,410 --> 00:15:48,440 it in giant planet atmospheres where 393 00:15:52,150 --> 00:15:50,420 it's even easier to detect we haven't 394 00:15:54,340 --> 00:15:52,160 seen it in small planets we haven't seen 395 00:15:57,580 --> 00:15:54,350 in any of the planets that we've tried 396 00:16:01,120 --> 00:15:57,590 to look for so this where's the methane 397 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:01,130 question is a massive one in trying to 398 00:16:04,330 --> 00:16:02,810 understand the composition of these 399 00:16:06,700 --> 00:16:04,340 planetary atmospheres and what's 400 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:06,710 happening chemically and dynamically in 401 00:16:10,540 --> 00:16:08,810 those atmospheres which mean that we're 402 00:16:11,530 --> 00:16:10,550 not seeing it and that's a big important 403 00:16:13,270 --> 00:16:11,540 question we're going to have to be 404 00:16:14,770 --> 00:16:13,280 answering in the coming years and I'm 405 00:16:17,620 --> 00:16:14,780 hoping that James Webb's going to help 406 00:16:18,940 --> 00:16:17,630 us with that but another really 407 00:16:21,070 --> 00:16:18,950 interesting thing one of the things I 408 00:16:26,460 --> 00:16:21,080 really love about this planet is that in 409 00:16:28,930 --> 00:16:26,470 fact it is drastically losing its mass 410 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:28,940 work that was published earlier this 411 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:31,610 year by Vinson burrying from the panther 412 00:16:35,380 --> 00:16:33,770 program so the panchromatic hubble 413 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:35,390 treasury program that's led by David 414 00:16:41,140 --> 00:16:38,930 Singh in Mercedes Lopez Morales observed 415 00:16:43,330 --> 00:16:41,150 the lyman-alpha of this planet we heard 416 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:43,340 about lyman-alpha lines earlier this 417 00:16:45,250 --> 00:16:44,930 week so that was a nice introduction for 418 00:16:48,370 --> 00:16:45,260 you 419 00:16:51,850 --> 00:16:48,380 and what they saw was that this planet 420 00:16:56,020 --> 00:16:51,860 is losing a significant amount of its 421 00:16:58,570 --> 00:16:56,030 atmosphere and very quickly it is not a 422 00:17:01,990 --> 00:16:58,580 particularly old system and it seems 423 00:17:04,300 --> 00:17:02,000 like we're seeing it in the first stages 424 00:17:05,740 --> 00:17:04,310 of it losing that dominant hydrogen 425 00:17:08,350 --> 00:17:05,750 helium atmosphere we heard from James 426 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:08,360 Aaron's talk that there is two kind of 427 00:17:13,900 --> 00:17:11,930 links if you got extreme x-ray UV 428 00:17:16,300 --> 00:17:13,910 radiation we expect that will be the 429 00:17:19,090 --> 00:17:16,310 main driver of mass loss in the early 430 00:17:21,579 --> 00:17:19,100 years of a planet as it forms and then 431 00:17:23,980 --> 00:17:21,589 the softer radiation will be causing 432 00:17:26,500 --> 00:17:23,990 mass loss after that we're seeing 433 00:17:28,900 --> 00:17:26,510 extreme UV radiation mass loss from this 434 00:17:32,050 --> 00:17:28,910 planet it's going to be getting smaller 435 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:32,060 and smaller and smaller and it's then 436 00:17:36,970 --> 00:17:34,730 the question of how that changes the 437 00:17:39,370 --> 00:17:36,980 atmospheric composition and if that's 438 00:17:42,790 --> 00:17:39,380 something that means that we can no 439 00:17:44,340 --> 00:17:42,800 longer trace it back to what size it 440 00:17:47,490 --> 00:17:44,350 started up 441 00:17:50,100 --> 00:17:47,500 can we ever know how big this planet 442 00:17:53,639 --> 00:17:50,110 started out as that's a really important 443 00:17:55,950 --> 00:17:53,649 question and how long can a planet live 444 00:17:59,399 --> 00:17:55,960 like this and at what end State will we 445 00:18:03,210 --> 00:17:59,409 see it in I don't know how many million 446 00:18:05,310 --> 00:18:03,220 years we're gonna be alive for but if we 447 00:18:07,470 --> 00:18:05,320 could what would it end up as and it's 448 00:18:09,450 --> 00:18:07,480 really down to simulations matching with 449 00:18:11,460 --> 00:18:09,460 what we're seeing observational II that 450 00:18:13,769 --> 00:18:11,470 is required to try and really fully 451 00:18:17,519 --> 00:18:13,779 understand these worlds so it's a link 452 00:18:20,669 --> 00:18:17,529 between both theory and observations as 453 00:18:23,279 --> 00:18:20,679 we move down to the most famous of the 454 00:18:25,740 --> 00:18:23,289 planets this is a very cloudy atmosphere 455 00:18:28,289 --> 00:18:25,750 that was measured by a number of people 456 00:18:31,730 --> 00:18:28,299 and then you know finally then the nail 457 00:18:34,019 --> 00:18:31,740 in the coffin from Laura Craig 60 458 00:18:36,539 --> 00:18:34,029 observations were huddled to get the 459 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:36,549 most precise flat line that's ever been 460 00:18:41,519 --> 00:18:38,490 measured with the Hubble Space Telescope 461 00:18:43,740 --> 00:18:41,529 it's very beautiful and one that really 462 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:43,750 really showed was that this atmosphere 463 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:46,330 has an opacity source that is really 464 00:18:51,269 --> 00:18:48,730 obscuring any molecular features that 465 00:18:52,740 --> 00:18:51,279 we're seeing that and that's something 466 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:52,750 that we're going to have to deal with 467 00:18:56,249 --> 00:18:54,730 but it also tells us as we saw earlier 468 00:18:58,499 --> 00:18:56,259 this week very nicely pointed out 469 00:19:01,889 --> 00:18:58,509 something about the dynamics of this 470 00:19:04,289 --> 00:19:01,899 atmosphere if you have opacity particles 471 00:19:06,619 --> 00:19:04,299 in the atmosphere that are causing this 472 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:06,629 they have to be held at that altitude 473 00:19:10,860 --> 00:19:09,250 there has to be dynamical movement to 474 00:19:13,740 --> 00:19:10,870 maintain them they're not being 475 00:19:15,810 --> 00:19:13,750 destroyed by the stellar radiation so 476 00:19:17,700 --> 00:19:15,820 they're either being recreated and 477 00:19:19,169 --> 00:19:17,710 there's a recycling mechanism or they're 478 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:19,179 forming there and they're staying there 479 00:19:23,549 --> 00:19:21,129 so we're learning a little bit about the 480 00:19:27,779 --> 00:19:23,559 dynamics there but one thing that I want 481 00:19:30,629 --> 00:19:27,789 to to really point out please stop 482 00:19:33,690 --> 00:19:30,639 calling in a super-earth pretty please 483 00:19:35,730 --> 00:19:33,700 if we look at some of the models from 484 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:35,740 Lopez and Fort Lee and they've got a lot 485 00:19:38,820 --> 00:19:37,210 of really nice bigger than this paper I 486 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:38,830 really encourage you to go check it out 487 00:19:47,460 --> 00:19:43,330 and we look at the radius and the mass 488 00:19:49,649 --> 00:19:47,470 of this planet there is no way you 489 00:19:53,039 --> 00:19:49,659 cannot have a hydrogen helium and bloap 490 00:19:56,170 --> 00:19:53,049 around it and mass dominated by that 491 00:19:58,330 --> 00:19:56,180 envelope and if a man 492 00:20:01,810 --> 00:19:58,340 let's talk about definitions definitions 493 00:20:03,430 --> 00:20:01,820 are like humans want to define things 494 00:20:05,470 --> 00:20:03,440 we're horrible creatures like that we 495 00:20:07,420 --> 00:20:05,480 want a very specific definition there 496 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:07,430 isn't one in science and none of these 497 00:20:13,570 --> 00:20:10,730 planets are going to agree with us but 498 00:20:16,030 --> 00:20:13,580 if something is dominated in math by its 499 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:16,040 atmosphere as we see with our giant 500 00:20:26,260 --> 00:20:22,730 planets mini Neptune if it's dominated 501 00:20:29,700 --> 00:20:26,270 in mass by its core by rock by anything 502 00:20:32,530 --> 00:20:29,710 else then sure call it a super F but I 503 00:20:35,230 --> 00:20:32,540 really think it's important that we we 504 00:20:37,360 --> 00:20:35,240 don't add labels to things that are a 505 00:20:39,550 --> 00:20:37,370 little bit misleading and this has got a 506 00:20:41,860 --> 00:20:39,560 fantastically large atmosphere that we 507 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:41,870 can look at so there's lots of different 508 00:20:46,330 --> 00:20:44,090 ways that we can do that and I think 509 00:20:48,580 --> 00:20:46,340 that it really sits within that hydrogen 510 00:20:50,860 --> 00:20:48,590 helium dominated regime but we just 511 00:20:55,510 --> 00:20:50,870 don't know we need to we need to look at 512 00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:55,520 these worlds that leads me on to 513 00:20:59,620 --> 00:20:57,650 something else that we've covered so I'm 514 00:21:01,060 --> 00:20:59,630 really glad that I'm actually at the end 515 00:21:02,590 --> 00:21:01,070 I was very nervous about that at first 516 00:21:04,060 --> 00:21:02,600 but everyone else is giving really great 517 00:21:06,430 --> 00:21:04,070 introduction to all of these things I 518 00:21:09,220 --> 00:21:06,440 don't have to go into too much detail we 519 00:21:11,710 --> 00:21:09,230 have our lava world and we've got quite 520 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:11,720 a few of them in this regime where we've 521 00:21:15,790 --> 00:21:13,850 measured their radii and their mass one 522 00:21:19,030 --> 00:21:15,800 of the most famous ones is 55 Cancri E 523 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:19,040 and there's a lot of questions that we 524 00:21:23,350 --> 00:21:21,650 need to ask about this if we look again 525 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:23,360 at that Lopez important diagram it 526 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:26,090 should have an atmosphere of roughly 30% 527 00:21:31,690 --> 00:21:28,010 hydrogen and helium but we know it can't 528 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:31,700 because it's so hot it's so hot it 529 00:21:37,120 --> 00:21:34,570 cannot have that kind of atmosphere so 530 00:21:39,070 --> 00:21:37,130 this is just me pointing out that we 531 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:39,080 can't just rely on those two parameters 532 00:21:43,570 --> 00:21:40,850 I started out by going through we need 533 00:21:45,190 --> 00:21:43,580 the mass we need the radius we also need 534 00:21:46,750 --> 00:21:45,200 to know the temperature we need to know 535 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:46,760 the star a radiance we need to know what 536 00:21:50,830 --> 00:21:48,770 kind of star it's around there's a huge 537 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:50,840 amount of information that we need about 538 00:21:54,610 --> 00:21:52,730 each of these individual worlds that we 539 00:21:57,400 --> 00:21:54,620 can look at them collectively and this 540 00:21:59,260 --> 00:21:57,410 is a really prime example of that some 541 00:22:01,240 --> 00:21:59,270 of the first observations that were done 542 00:22:03,340 --> 00:22:01,250 are 55 Cancri you were looking for this 543 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:03,350 large dominant atmosphere around this 544 00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:06,410 world and actually one of the most 545 00:22:09,740 --> 00:22:08,090 important things that's been seen as 546 00:22:12,750 --> 00:22:09,750 variations in this planet 547 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:12,760 so I had a couple of questions when 548 00:22:18,330 --> 00:22:15,490 Laura was giving her talk you know if 549 00:22:20,310 --> 00:22:18,340 we're looking at variations in this 550 00:22:22,490 --> 00:22:20,320 poetry answers were seeing differences 551 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:22,500 changes are we talking about 552 00:22:27,180 --> 00:22:24,490 catastrophic outgassing where it's 553 00:22:29,220 --> 00:22:27,190 bursting and is random or are we talking 554 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:29,230 about continuous outgassing from this 555 00:22:35,490 --> 00:22:32,290 lava lake this possibly eyeball of a 556 00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:35,500 magma ocean where it's just changing the 557 00:22:40,170 --> 00:22:37,330 types of material that are being 558 00:22:41,730 --> 00:22:40,180 released from that magma and these are 559 00:22:44,220 --> 00:22:41,740 questions that we don't know the answer 560 00:22:46,290 --> 00:22:44,230 to and we need to be observing what the 561 00:22:48,330 --> 00:22:46,300 specific materials of those are and 562 00:22:51,750 --> 00:22:48,340 there's two fantastic posters which show 563 00:22:54,780 --> 00:22:51,760 that it's not any of these so sorry 564 00:22:56,820 --> 00:22:54,790 spoiler it's not paint the end being 565 00:22:59,280 --> 00:22:56,830 observed there and there's not evidence 566 00:23:01,380 --> 00:22:59,290 of the sodium and the calcium as well so 567 00:23:03,330 --> 00:23:01,390 what is being released from this large 568 00:23:05,790 --> 00:23:03,340 magma ocean and how is that being 569 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:05,800 recirculated around the planet we're 570 00:23:11,190 --> 00:23:08,290 seeing strong fades curve so therefore 571 00:23:12,750 --> 00:23:11,200 there's recirculation of heat what what 572 00:23:15,090 --> 00:23:12,760 does that mean how is that doing it and 573 00:23:17,610 --> 00:23:15,100 when we saw really nice examples in 574 00:23:21,360 --> 00:23:17,620 Laura's talk about how you might expect 575 00:23:22,860 --> 00:23:21,370 the timescales of some rain out being 576 00:23:24,810 --> 00:23:22,870 closer to the edge of the magma ocean 577 00:23:28,230 --> 00:23:24,820 and therefore going under and being 578 00:23:29,730 --> 00:23:28,240 recirculated sub subsurface on the night 579 00:23:31,290 --> 00:23:29,740 side so these are really big questions 580 00:23:33,690 --> 00:23:31,300 that we don't have the answers to and 581 00:23:35,490 --> 00:23:33,700 that's what we need to do is to 582 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:35,500 understand them by looking both in 583 00:23:40,950 --> 00:23:39,250 emission phase curves and in seeing if 584 00:23:44,580 --> 00:23:40,960 we can get any kind of absorption 585 00:23:47,460 --> 00:23:44,590 features there's another lava world 586 00:23:49,950 --> 00:23:47,470 which again does not fit at all with 587 00:23:53,100 --> 00:23:49,960 this program because it's also too hot 588 00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:53,110 but it's actually a lot cooler than 55 589 00:23:59,460 --> 00:23:56,410 Cancri it's about 500 to 700 Kelvin 590 00:24:01,680 --> 00:23:59,470 cooler than 55 Cancri E but it's still 591 00:24:03,390 --> 00:24:01,690 too hot to maintain any atmosphere even 592 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:03,400 if it was big enough for it and we know 593 00:24:11,100 --> 00:24:06,250 that it's not the question we have here 594 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:11,110 for core o 7 is it a stripped core if it 595 00:24:15,510 --> 00:24:13,090 is a stripped core how big was it to 596 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:15,520 start with when did it lose its 597 00:24:19,980 --> 00:24:17,890 atmosphere and how quickly did it lose 598 00:24:22,950 --> 00:24:19,990 its atmosphere it's very similar 599 00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:22,960 questions that we have to Venus's 600 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:23,530 atmosphere 601 00:24:28,500 --> 00:24:25,810 when did it lose its water how quickly 602 00:24:30,120 --> 00:24:28,510 did it lose its water these questions 603 00:24:31,740 --> 00:24:30,130 aren't new none of the questions we're 604 00:24:33,750 --> 00:24:31,750 asking an exoplanet science are 605 00:24:36,030 --> 00:24:33,760 particularly new our solar system has 606 00:24:37,410 --> 00:24:36,040 given us a plethora of ridiculous 607 00:24:40,620 --> 00:24:37,420 questions over the years that we've had 608 00:24:43,140 --> 00:24:40,630 to go and answer and the beauty of 609 00:24:45,660 --> 00:24:43,150 exoplanets is we have thousands of them 610 00:24:47,370 --> 00:24:45,670 to answer those question with so we need 611 00:24:50,010 --> 00:24:47,380 to be looking at across a wide diversity 612 00:24:52,170 --> 00:24:50,020 of planets and trying to observational e 613 00:24:55,170 --> 00:24:52,180 differentiate between these two 614 00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:55,180 different kinds of worlds is really 615 00:24:58,590 --> 00:24:57,610 important so my questions to you these 616 00:25:00,750 --> 00:24:58,600 aren't questions I'm going to answer 617 00:25:03,270 --> 00:25:00,760 that would be completely ridiculous I'm 618 00:25:05,460 --> 00:25:03,280 an observant on a theorist my questions 619 00:25:08,580 --> 00:25:05,470 to you are how do we answer them how can 620 00:25:11,100 --> 00:25:08,590 you provide observers with different 621 00:25:13,770 --> 00:25:11,110 things that we can look for to prove or 622 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:13,780 disprove different models that's so 623 00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:16,090 important as we move into a far more 624 00:25:22,530 --> 00:25:19,810 data rich era is having things that we 625 00:25:23,970 --> 00:25:22,540 can prove and disprove places we can 626 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:23,980 look and actually make those 627 00:25:29,460 --> 00:25:26,050 measurements for you so please think 628 00:25:31,410 --> 00:25:29,470 about all of these things can end our 629 00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:31,420 journey across the mass radius diagram 630 00:25:35,310 --> 00:25:33,970 at the most famous of the planets the 631 00:25:38,970 --> 00:25:35,320 traffix one system we've got a bit of an 632 00:25:40,650 --> 00:25:38,980 introduction to them earlier these are 633 00:25:42,090 --> 00:25:40,660 two of my favorite figures of the 634 00:25:44,580 --> 00:25:42,100 trapars one system there's so many 635 00:25:46,410 --> 00:25:44,590 papers on them but the the Dellacroce 636 00:25:48,690 --> 00:25:46,420 paper has these two beautiful figures 637 00:25:52,230 --> 00:25:48,700 which show all of the seven planets on 638 00:25:54,690 --> 00:25:52,240 the angle they september star which is 639 00:25:57,330 --> 00:25:54,700 just really really useful information 640 00:25:59,580 --> 00:25:57,340 for an observer this is the angle all of 641 00:26:01,860 --> 00:25:59,590 the planets attend on the star and that 642 00:26:04,890 --> 00:26:01,870 is something that is invaluable and I'll 643 00:26:07,650 --> 00:26:04,900 explain why in a second we've also got 644 00:26:10,890 --> 00:26:07,660 the nice comparison to Earth and Venus 645 00:26:14,580 --> 00:26:10,900 here we're looking at seven planets that 646 00:26:16,500 --> 00:26:14,590 all sit within the terrestrial realm and 647 00:26:18,870 --> 00:26:16,510 I use the word terrestrial not to mean 648 00:26:22,860 --> 00:26:18,880 earth-like because that's a silly word I 649 00:26:25,740 --> 00:26:22,870 mean they are dominated by rock of some 650 00:26:27,330 --> 00:26:25,750 kind and we want to find out what we 651 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:27,340 also want to find out if they've got an 652 00:26:33,590 --> 00:26:31,690 atmosphere we've ruled out of Hubble 653 00:26:36,659 --> 00:26:33,600 Space Telescope observations a 654 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:36,669 primordial hydrogen and helium 655 00:26:42,779 --> 00:26:40,450 my sphere around B through G our 656 00:26:46,529 --> 00:26:42,789 observations of each haven't come in but 657 00:26:49,470 --> 00:26:46,539 when they do I will let you know but the 658 00:26:52,759 --> 00:26:49,480 real question is the real answers we 659 00:26:55,169 --> 00:26:52,769 don't have we were no clue we ruled out 660 00:26:56,340 --> 00:26:55,179 primordial and probe of hydrogen helium 661 00:26:59,099 --> 00:26:56,350 we've won no idea if there's anything 662 00:27:02,070 --> 00:26:59,109 underneath that we've got no current 663 00:27:04,229 --> 00:27:02,080 idea of if it's got an outlet so 664 00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:04,239 dominated by co2 and - we're not gonna 665 00:27:11,700 --> 00:27:07,570 find out her then - if it's just the 666 00:27:15,739 --> 00:27:11,710 bowling ball but we're going to look are 667 00:27:19,349 --> 00:27:15,749 any of these habitable we don't know and 668 00:27:21,869 --> 00:27:19,359 can we use these wells to disentangle 669 00:27:23,810 --> 00:27:21,879 the impact of stellar radiation this is 670 00:27:26,129 --> 00:27:23,820 my favorite thing about this gold mine 671 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:26,139 we have seven planets different 672 00:27:31,409 --> 00:27:28,450 distances from the same star all roughly 673 00:27:33,690 --> 00:27:31,419 the same mass density that we can use to 674 00:27:36,899 --> 00:27:33,700 try and understand how a star affects 675 00:27:38,759 --> 00:27:36,909 the planet's atmosphere and that's what 676 00:27:40,799 --> 00:27:38,769 we intend to do with the system more 677 00:27:42,090 --> 00:27:40,809 than anything else don't talk the 678 00:27:43,970 --> 00:27:42,100 astrobiologists they want to look for 679 00:27:46,769 --> 00:27:43,980 life I want to know how a star is 680 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:46,779 affecting a planetary atmosphere at 681 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:48,730 various distances and this is a great 682 00:27:53,879 --> 00:27:52,450 place to start looking for that and in 683 00:27:56,340 --> 00:27:53,889 the future we're getting a lot more 684 00:27:58,409 --> 00:27:56,350 planets this is just the calculation or 685 00:28:03,019 --> 00:27:58,419 the test yield it's based on Barkat all 686 00:28:05,999 --> 00:28:03,029 I just made it into more me colors and 687 00:28:08,039 --> 00:28:06,009 you can see we're getting lots of mm 688 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:08,049 star planets down here as well and we've 689 00:28:11,460 --> 00:28:09,970 got speculoos coming online as well and 690 00:28:13,259 --> 00:28:11,470 that radial velocity diagram I showed 691 00:28:15,090 --> 00:28:13,269 you showed you all of the types of 692 00:28:16,859 --> 00:28:15,100 planets that we expect to find around 693 00:28:20,759 --> 00:28:16,869 those so we really need to understand 694 00:28:24,539 --> 00:28:20,769 this type of system and honestly Travis 695 00:28:25,889 --> 00:28:24,549 has given us the ability to do that so 696 00:28:27,749 --> 00:28:25,899 I'm gonna take you through some work 697 00:28:30,479 --> 00:28:27,759 that I've just recently done looking at 698 00:28:33,539 --> 00:28:30,489 the Trappist one system and trying to 699 00:28:36,479 --> 00:28:33,549 learn how we can disentangle the 700 00:28:40,409 --> 00:28:36,489 planetary atmosphere from that of a 701 00:28:41,759 --> 00:28:40,419 annoying little cold star I don't know 702 00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:41,769 how many stellar physicists have got in 703 00:28:46,950 --> 00:28:44,370 the room that I can annoy with 704 00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:46,960 so the trapars one system again and I 705 00:28:51,090 --> 00:28:49,090 feel introduction here is the the 706 00:28:54,210 --> 00:28:51,100 analysis that we've done to rule out 707 00:28:56,220 --> 00:28:54,220 those hydrogen helium envelopes around 708 00:28:59,340 --> 00:28:56,230 these planets and we had some very 709 00:29:02,430 --> 00:28:59,350 tentative evidence here for Trappist 1g 710 00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:02,440 so what we did is we went back and we 711 00:29:05,970 --> 00:29:04,330 got more observations of Travis 1g so 712 00:29:08,730 --> 00:29:05,980 I'm gonna take you through a case study 713 00:29:11,820 --> 00:29:08,740 on that but first the reason why we need 714 00:29:17,610 --> 00:29:11,830 to care about this strap is one is a 715 00:29:21,690 --> 00:29:17,620 very cool M star at 2500 Kelvin that 716 00:29:24,299 --> 00:29:21,700 means that it itself has water vapor in 717 00:29:26,789 --> 00:29:24,309 its atmosphere so the star itself has 718 00:29:29,249 --> 00:29:26,799 absorption and emission features due to 719 00:29:31,049 --> 00:29:29,259 water vapor in the atmosphere and that 720 00:29:32,850 --> 00:29:31,059 is exactly what we're looking for in the 721 00:29:35,279 --> 00:29:32,860 planet's atmosphere so we have to 722 00:29:37,740 --> 00:29:35,289 understand that water absorption in the 723 00:29:39,899 --> 00:29:37,750 star to really understand what we're 724 00:29:42,869 --> 00:29:39,909 seeing in that planetary atmosphere and 725 00:29:44,759 --> 00:29:42,879 it's really important where in the 726 00:29:47,039 --> 00:29:44,769 atmosphere of the star there are 727 00:29:49,860 --> 00:29:47,049 different features so if you've got a 728 00:29:51,149 --> 00:29:49,870 spot either cool or hot on That star 729 00:29:53,009 --> 00:29:51,159 it's gonna be a different temperature 730 00:29:56,340 --> 00:29:53,019 it's gonna have different spectral 731 00:29:58,740 --> 00:29:56,350 features how can we try and understand 732 00:30:00,360 --> 00:29:58,750 what different structures there are on 733 00:30:05,580 --> 00:30:00,370 the star itself and how they're changing 734 00:30:09,029 --> 00:30:05,590 the spectral features of the star been 735 00:30:11,850 --> 00:30:09,039 rockin in 2018 started a study looking 736 00:30:14,730 --> 00:30:11,860 at boy well he dubbed the transit light 737 00:30:16,980 --> 00:30:14,740 source effect I like to think of it more 738 00:30:17,999 --> 00:30:16,990 of a flux contrast but that's because 739 00:30:20,879 --> 00:30:18,009 I've been hanging out with solar 740 00:30:23,369 --> 00:30:20,889 physicists too long but the the light 741 00:30:25,350 --> 00:30:23,379 source effect is really looking at how 742 00:30:28,860 --> 00:30:25,360 these different features based on hot 743 00:30:31,110 --> 00:30:28,870 spots cold spots on a cold star which 744 00:30:34,529 --> 00:30:31,120 already has a base absorption of water 745 00:30:37,860 --> 00:30:34,539 change what we're measuring in the 746 00:30:41,100 --> 00:30:37,870 transit depth and the transit depth have 747 00:30:43,799 --> 00:30:41,110 a function of wave them is what's giving 748 00:30:46,649 --> 00:30:43,809 us the planetary spectrum and if that's 749 00:30:48,090 --> 00:30:46,659 changing with the star as well we need 750 00:30:50,610 --> 00:30:48,100 to understand that we need to remove 751 00:30:53,759 --> 00:30:50,620 that stellar effect so I'm gonna take 752 00:30:55,529 --> 00:30:53,769 you through what I've done to try and 753 00:30:57,600 --> 00:30:55,539 remove that star effect and this is a 754 00:30:57,990 --> 00:30:57,610 lot based on the rack and papers and the 755 00:31:00,540 --> 00:30:58,000 equation 756 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:00,550 that they had in there so first just 757 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:03,610 look at what that might might do you can 758 00:31:08,850 --> 00:31:06,130 see your observed spectrum in green here 759 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:08,860 and then the true planetary spectrum 760 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:10,930 without the imprints of the star on it 761 00:31:14,940 --> 00:31:12,610 in blue there so that's what we're 762 00:31:17,310 --> 00:31:14,950 trying to get to and the way that we do 763 00:31:20,670 --> 00:31:17,320 that is we take simply the measured 764 00:31:24,090 --> 00:31:20,680 transit depth and that is equal to a 765 00:31:27,900 --> 00:31:24,100 contrast factor of the star so how 766 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:27,910 different is the star to a real 767 00:31:34,770 --> 00:31:30,850 planetary spectrum so we can calculate 768 00:31:38,610 --> 00:31:34,780 what this contrast factor is by modeling 769 00:31:41,430 --> 00:31:38,620 what the flux of the star is and taking 770 00:31:42,660 --> 00:31:41,440 it as different components and what 771 00:31:44,880 --> 00:31:42,670 we're doing here is we're taking three 772 00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:44,890 temperature components of the star so 773 00:31:48,060 --> 00:31:45,610 we're saying you've got a base 774 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:48,070 photosphere that is one temperature and 775 00:31:52,170 --> 00:31:50,050 you might have cool spots or hot spots 776 00:31:54,030 --> 00:31:52,180 so two different types of temperatures 777 00:31:57,030 --> 00:31:54,040 on that base photosphere ik temperature 778 00:31:59,370 --> 00:31:57,040 and we're trying to calculate how much 779 00:32:03,930 --> 00:31:59,380 area on the star each of those 780 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:03,940 temperatures are represented by so you 781 00:32:10,050 --> 00:32:06,370 can then calculate what this factor is 782 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:10,060 you need to multiply by your well divide 783 00:32:15,420 --> 00:32:12,250 your measured spectrum by to get your 784 00:32:17,580 --> 00:32:15,430 real spectrum and the way that we did 785 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:17,590 that with Travis one is we've got a huge 786 00:32:22,890 --> 00:32:19,330 number of observations of this planet 787 00:32:24,450 --> 00:32:22,900 out of transit so out of transit no 788 00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:24,460 planets in front of the star this is 789 00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:26,410 just the star and what it looks like and 790 00:32:32,010 --> 00:32:28,570 we took all of those observations that 791 00:32:33,570 --> 00:32:32,020 we had we created a a ver egde template 792 00:32:36,540 --> 00:32:33,580 of that star for this particular 793 00:32:37,860 --> 00:32:36,550 observation and we fit different models 794 00:32:40,050 --> 00:32:37,870 to and we fit three different 795 00:32:43,290 --> 00:32:40,060 temperature component models to that 796 00:32:45,030 --> 00:32:43,300 star and we found we allowed them to 797 00:32:46,890 --> 00:32:45,040 vary in terms of the temperature that 798 00:32:49,470 --> 00:32:46,900 they wanted the fraction that they 799 00:32:51,270 --> 00:32:49,480 covered we created an entire grid of 800 00:32:53,700 --> 00:32:51,280 different temperatures and combination 801 00:32:57,390 --> 00:32:53,710 factors that we could do to find out 802 00:33:00,240 --> 00:32:57,400 what this star might look like and what 803 00:33:02,730 --> 00:33:00,250 we what we found was that with these 804 00:33:04,770 --> 00:33:02,740 three different temperatures sorry this 805 00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:04,780 is a bit dense but for the three 806 00:33:09,780 --> 00:33:07,690 different temperatures you end up with a 807 00:33:11,670 --> 00:33:09,790 single temperature model where your 808 00:33:14,010 --> 00:33:11,680 planets passing in front just of boring 809 00:33:15,810 --> 00:33:14,020 quiet star of the same temperature to 810 00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:15,820 temperatures where your planet passes in 811 00:33:21,150 --> 00:33:19,570 front a mixture of hot cool regions it 812 00:33:23,490 --> 00:33:21,160 passes just in front of the cool 813 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:23,500 photosphere and it passes just in front 814 00:33:27,510 --> 00:33:25,930 of the hot bit and then again that same 815 00:33:29,370 --> 00:33:27,520 kind of combinations for the three 816 00:33:30,990 --> 00:33:29,380 temperature model and then you have it 817 00:33:32,490 --> 00:33:31,000 could pass in front of a cold and medium 818 00:33:35,790 --> 00:33:32,500 mix it could pass in front of a cold hot 819 00:33:37,590 --> 00:33:35,800 mix hot medium mix all of that and what 820 00:33:39,570 --> 00:33:37,600 you can do by looking at these fractions 821 00:33:41,070 --> 00:33:39,580 and painting you know logical steps 822 00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:41,080 through this is you can start ruling 823 00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:43,930 things out based on the stellar models 824 00:33:48,210 --> 00:33:46,810 and based on the fit to the observations 825 00:33:50,970 --> 00:33:48,220 that we got we were able to rule out the 826 00:33:53,490 --> 00:33:50,980 one temperature model this did not fit 827 00:33:56,220 --> 00:33:53,500 the what we are measuring from the start 828 00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:56,230 all we're then able to look at the 829 00:34:00,210 --> 00:33:57,730 different things that we've got here we 830 00:34:02,310 --> 00:34:00,220 can use the geometry of this to rule 831 00:34:05,550 --> 00:34:02,320 things out and it's really nice when you 832 00:34:07,290 --> 00:34:05,560 think about it logically you have a hot 833 00:34:10,580 --> 00:34:07,300 region in your to temperature model 834 00:34:15,330 --> 00:34:10,590 which covers 3.5% of the star surface 835 00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:15,340 and our planet transits that star it's 836 00:34:22,890 --> 00:34:19,570 not it would need to only cover a stripe 837 00:34:25,710 --> 00:34:22,900 of hot atmosphere around that star on 838 00:34:27,270 --> 00:34:25,720 its transit not go anywhere near any 839 00:34:29,970 --> 00:34:27,280 cool bits so that would mean that the 840 00:34:33,240 --> 00:34:29,980 star would have a stripe of hot around 841 00:34:35,580 --> 00:34:33,250 it and that is according to all of the 842 00:34:37,550 --> 00:34:35,590 seller physicists I talked to completely 843 00:34:40,950 --> 00:34:37,560 unrealistic so we can rule that one out 844 00:34:43,020 --> 00:34:40,960 we can also rule out this hot model here 845 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:43,030 as well and we can rule out the medium 846 00:34:49,740 --> 00:34:45,850 model for a very similar reason so we've 847 00:34:52,770 --> 00:34:49,750 already been able to rule out a huge 848 00:34:54,270 --> 00:34:52,780 number of this parameter space so we can 849 00:34:56,730 --> 00:34:54,280 start digging down and trying to 850 00:34:58,530 --> 00:34:56,740 understand ok what's left what are the 851 00:35:00,240 --> 00:34:58,540 possibilities that are left this planet 852 00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:00,250 is passing in front of the mixture of 853 00:35:04,110 --> 00:35:01,570 different temperature regions it's 854 00:35:06,270 --> 00:35:04,120 evenly distributed across the stellar 855 00:35:07,710 --> 00:35:06,280 surface or there's kind of some spots in 856 00:35:09,540 --> 00:35:07,720 there that are nice and small that we 857 00:35:12,090 --> 00:35:09,550 don't see in the transit like curves 858 00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:12,100 we're not seeing any evidence whatsoever 859 00:35:17,310 --> 00:35:15,850 of spot occupation and we can start 860 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:17,320 ruling these out and we do that by 861 00:35:21,750 --> 00:35:19,690 taking that equation we take our 862 00:35:24,390 --> 00:35:21,760 measured transmission spectrum we 863 00:35:25,140 --> 00:35:24,400 calculate the contrast factors for each 864 00:35:27,630 --> 00:35:25,150 of those calm 865 00:35:30,769 --> 00:35:27,640 Nations these are what the correction 866 00:35:33,930 --> 00:35:30,779 factors should be and you end up with a 867 00:35:35,250 --> 00:35:33,940 series of five potential transmission 868 00:35:37,980 --> 00:35:35,260 spectra for what this planetary 869 00:35:40,500 --> 00:35:37,990 atmosphere should look like so we've got 870 00:35:42,660 --> 00:35:40,510 five different potential poetry 871 00:35:45,029 --> 00:35:42,670 transmission spectra so now let's take 872 00:35:47,370 --> 00:35:45,039 some more logical steps which we're 873 00:35:49,740 --> 00:35:47,380 going to take the first logical step of 874 00:35:51,660 --> 00:35:49,750 saying that this plant could not have an 875 00:35:53,579 --> 00:35:51,670 atmosphere greater than scale height 876 00:35:54,930 --> 00:35:53,589 five scale Heights here and we know that 877 00:35:57,660 --> 00:35:54,940 because then we would measure it to be a 878 00:36:00,809 --> 00:35:57,670 mini Neptune and it's very much got a 879 00:36:04,470 --> 00:36:00,819 mass and density of an earth as well so 880 00:36:07,260 --> 00:36:04,480 we're actually only left with two we're 881 00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:07,270 left with the green one which is 882 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:10,930 actually our original measurement so the 883 00:36:15,630 --> 00:36:12,970 measured transmission spectrum is equal 884 00:36:18,089 --> 00:36:15,640 to the real transmission structure of 885 00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:18,099 the planet and the purple one which 886 00:36:21,750 --> 00:36:20,650 suggests that the planet is the star is 887 00:36:24,870 --> 00:36:21,760 represented by three different 888 00:36:26,549 --> 00:36:24,880 temperatures and that the planet is 889 00:36:28,170 --> 00:36:26,559 passing in front of a mixture of the 890 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:28,180 cool and medium temperatures in that 891 00:36:35,279 --> 00:36:31,210 model and we can look at each of those 892 00:36:37,260 --> 00:36:35,289 in turn and we can start now by being 893 00:36:40,980 --> 00:36:37,270 planetary scientists so we've gone from 894 00:36:43,620 --> 00:36:40,990 stellar physicists to mathematicians and 895 00:36:46,470 --> 00:36:43,630 geographers essentially to planetary 896 00:36:48,539 --> 00:36:46,480 scientists finally um we were using 897 00:36:51,029 --> 00:36:48,549 models which were created by Sarah Moran 898 00:36:53,010 --> 00:36:51,039 and you can go find and talk to her she 899 00:36:54,870 --> 00:36:53,020 presented a poster earlier this week but 900 00:36:57,120 --> 00:36:54,880 please go and chat about the models that 901 00:37:00,470 --> 00:36:57,130 she made for us these are based on the 902 00:37:03,299 --> 00:37:00,480 data that comes from the horse lab and 903 00:37:05,370 --> 00:37:03,309 using the information from that she 904 00:37:06,930 --> 00:37:05,380 created a series of models for all of 905 00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:06,940 the Travis planets you can see that in 906 00:37:11,579 --> 00:37:09,970 in her paper in 2018 all of the 907 00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:11,589 different rapid fire ants for both both 908 00:37:15,809 --> 00:37:13,690 chemically generated species Solis hates 909 00:37:18,029 --> 00:37:15,819 particles and these different cloud 910 00:37:20,279 --> 00:37:18,039 particles how might they affect what 911 00:37:22,019 --> 00:37:20,289 transmission Spectre you're getting how 912 00:37:23,430 --> 00:37:22,029 might they change what you'll get to be 913 00:37:25,410 --> 00:37:23,440 measuring so using those different 914 00:37:27,720 --> 00:37:25,420 models that she created for us we looked 915 00:37:30,210 --> 00:37:27,730 at each of these transmission spectra 916 00:37:33,269 --> 00:37:30,220 and what we were able to find was that 917 00:37:35,309 --> 00:37:33,279 there is only one possibility that is 918 00:37:37,710 --> 00:37:35,319 reasonable for this planetary 919 00:37:39,089 --> 00:37:37,720 configuration that the measured 920 00:37:42,089 --> 00:37:39,099 transmission spectrum of trap 921 00:37:44,309 --> 00:37:42,099 1g is the real transmission spectrum of 922 00:37:46,620 --> 00:37:44,319 traffice 1g and that means that we're 923 00:37:49,049 --> 00:37:46,630 not getting this contrast effect we're 924 00:37:51,749 --> 00:37:49,059 not measuring differences on the star 925 00:37:53,609 --> 00:37:51,759 and that's really great here that would 926 00:37:55,140 --> 00:37:53,619 be really nice it makes our life simpler 927 00:37:56,940 --> 00:37:55,150 to make that assumption but what I'm 928 00:37:59,729 --> 00:37:56,950 saying is we can't make that assumption 929 00:38:02,549 --> 00:37:59,739 we do have to go through this grueling 930 00:38:04,170 --> 00:38:02,559 process of analyzing each of these types 931 00:38:06,989 --> 00:38:04,180 of planets around these M stars these 932 00:38:10,109 --> 00:38:06,999 cool stars through a step-by-step 933 00:38:12,150 --> 00:38:10,119 process to rule out the presence of 934 00:38:14,430 --> 00:38:12,160 stellar features on the measured 935 00:38:15,930 --> 00:38:14,440 transmission spectrum so it's going to 936 00:38:17,489 --> 00:38:15,940 be a little bit grueling for everybody 937 00:38:20,099 --> 00:38:17,499 when we're doing this but it's so 938 00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:20,109 important so that web they're using our 939 00:38:25,229 --> 00:38:22,930 models we can know that we're looking at 940 00:38:28,499 --> 00:38:25,239 what the planet is giving us and not 941 00:38:30,210 --> 00:38:28,509 what the star is giving us so I'm just 942 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:30,220 going to show you what those logical 943 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:32,170 steps are just so that you've got them 944 00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:34,450 written down please take a picture or go 945 00:38:38,910 --> 00:38:36,970 look at the paper you need to measure 946 00:38:41,370 --> 00:38:38,920 the stellar spectrum out of transit you 947 00:38:43,950 --> 00:38:41,380 need to have an understanding of over a 948 00:38:46,890 --> 00:38:43,960 fairly decent amount of time what this 949 00:38:48,569 --> 00:38:46,900 star looks like if you're going to fit 950 00:38:52,799 --> 00:38:48,579 the models to it the models aren't 951 00:38:55,620 --> 00:38:52,809 perfect the models are actually quite 952 00:38:57,630 --> 00:38:55,630 wrong in some cases you need to make 953 00:38:59,160 --> 00:38:57,640 sure that you're fitting multiple 954 00:39:01,950 --> 00:38:59,170 different models and you are scaling 955 00:39:04,109 --> 00:39:01,960 them to the correct unit the units are 956 00:39:06,180 --> 00:39:04,119 hugely important here please go read the 957 00:39:08,969 --> 00:39:06,190 paper to why the units are hugely 958 00:39:12,660 --> 00:39:08,979 important here do not inflate the 959 00:39:14,940 --> 00:39:12,670 uncertainties on your data so units are 960 00:39:17,670 --> 00:39:14,950 hugely important use the geometries are 961 00:39:19,319 --> 00:39:17,680 the logic where is this planet passing 962 00:39:22,950 --> 00:39:19,329 in front of its star could you have just 963 00:39:24,900 --> 00:39:22,960 a stripe of hot spot is the spots that 964 00:39:26,670 --> 00:39:24,910 you would expect the fractional coverage 965 00:39:28,890 --> 00:39:26,680 big enough that you might expect an 966 00:39:31,709 --> 00:39:28,900 occultation event if you don't see one 967 00:39:34,140 --> 00:39:31,719 you can actually put a limit on the 968 00:39:35,609 --> 00:39:34,150 sizes of the spots on the atmosphere and 969 00:39:39,209 --> 00:39:35,619 we actually do that for this traffice 970 00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:39,219 one planet as well and then use those 971 00:39:45,989 --> 00:39:41,890 corrective models to your different 972 00:39:47,729 --> 00:39:45,999 measured and potentially real planetary 973 00:39:49,229 --> 00:39:47,739 transmission spectra with theoretical 974 00:39:52,140 --> 00:39:49,239 models to try and understand which ones 975 00:39:55,020 --> 00:39:52,150 might be might be real and in fact I 976 00:39:56,550 --> 00:39:55,030 let you know that we didn't know the 977 00:39:58,350 --> 00:39:56,560 difference between the two of them until 978 00:39:59,790 --> 00:39:58,360 we looked out to the Spitzer data points 979 00:40:02,100 --> 00:39:59,800 as well so you can't just correct the 980 00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:02,110 date you've got use all the data on that 981 00:40:07,410 --> 00:40:04,210 planet and use the correction factor 982 00:40:09,660 --> 00:40:07,420 over the right wavelength ranges to 983 00:40:13,650 --> 00:40:09,670 correct it and try and understand those 984 00:40:15,900 --> 00:40:13,660 planetary atmospheres so that's kind of 985 00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:15,910 a whirlwind tour through the problems 986 00:40:21,240 --> 00:40:17,410 that we have with terrestrial planets 987 00:40:24,540 --> 00:40:21,250 but also the amazing array of different 988 00:40:28,950 --> 00:40:24,550 types of worlds that we've got and the 989 00:40:30,720 --> 00:40:28,960 question is where do we go from here I'm 990 00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:30,730 not going to just focus on web but I do 991 00:40:39,780 --> 00:40:35,770 like the awful pun we have in the future 992 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:39,790 a huge number of missions at our 993 00:40:47,340 --> 00:40:43,090 disposal and that it's going to really 994 00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:47,350 really Drive exoplanets forward this is 995 00:40:54,780 --> 00:40:51,610 a new field maybe not anymore but it's 996 00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:54,790 going to get Wilder it's going to get 997 00:40:58,740 --> 00:40:56,170 more difficult and there's going to be 998 00:41:02,540 --> 00:40:58,750 way more data than we've ever known how 999 00:41:05,900 --> 00:41:02,550 to handle before so we're gonna scare 1000 00:41:12,540 --> 00:41:05,910 the crap out of the theorists for a bit 1001 00:41:14,730 --> 00:41:12,550 so get ready cuz we're excited for it so 1002 00:41:16,350 --> 00:41:14,740 we've currently got lots of really nice 1003 00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:16,360 missions going on I didn't list them all 1004 00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:18,010 here we've got tests which is really 1005 00:41:21,890 --> 00:41:19,570 churning out planets I haven't talked 1006 00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:21,900 about any of them here but there are 1007 00:41:25,350 --> 00:41:23,770 tons of them and if you're following 1008 00:41:28,350 --> 00:41:25,360 along with the test science conference 1009 00:41:30,270 --> 00:41:28,360 week or so ago then you had seen loads 1010 00:41:31,980 --> 00:41:30,280 of stuff and if your extreme Sol systems 1011 00:41:33,750 --> 00:41:31,990 next week you will see even more stuff 1012 00:41:36,090 --> 00:41:33,760 coming out from those to have fun it's 1013 00:41:38,970 --> 00:41:36,100 some characterization stuff as well so 1014 00:41:41,940 --> 00:41:38,980 keep an eye out for that we've got James 1015 00:41:43,500 --> 00:41:41,950 Webb launching we've got G cleff coming 1016 00:41:45,300 --> 00:41:43,510 online which would be great and we've 1017 00:41:47,340 --> 00:41:45,310 got all of these different types of 1018 00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:47,350 instruments which are going to help us 1019 00:41:51,240 --> 00:41:49,570 characterize these very small ones 1020 00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:51,250 really pushing down to these small 1021 00:41:57,930 --> 00:41:53,970 worlds and I wouldn't be doing my job 1022 00:42:00,930 --> 00:41:57,940 from Space Telescope if I didn't remind 1023 00:42:05,150 --> 00:42:00,940 you that in the next year you have a lot 1024 00:42:07,819 --> 00:42:05,160 of work to do we have two proposal 1025 00:42:10,220 --> 00:42:07,829 like that we really focus on here and 1026 00:42:13,849 --> 00:42:10,230 exoplanets coming up we've got the HSC 1027 00:42:16,069 --> 00:42:13,859 28 so that cool will go out in November 1028 00:42:19,609 --> 00:42:16,079 you will then need your proposals in by 1029 00:42:21,499 --> 00:42:19,619 March 1st it's earlier than normal the 1030 00:42:23,900 --> 00:42:21,509 call for proposals for James Webb will 1031 00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:23,910 be going out in January sometime and 1032 00:42:27,499 --> 00:42:25,650 then your proposals will be due in May 1033 00:42:32,259 --> 00:42:27,509 just two months after your Hubble 1034 00:42:34,190 --> 00:42:32,269 proposals so get writing now please 1035 00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:34,200 seriously don't leave it to the last 1036 00:42:41,599 --> 00:42:39,210 minute it really stresses me out but 1037 00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:41,609 it's not just that's like one proposals 1038 00:42:45,589 --> 00:42:43,650 we already know that James Webb is going 1039 00:42:49,220 --> 00:42:45,599 to be looking at loads of small planets 1040 00:42:52,190 --> 00:42:49,230 in fact almost half of the gto time that 1041 00:42:54,680 --> 00:42:52,200 is dedicated to exoplanets which is 27% 1042 00:42:57,410 --> 00:42:54,690 of all of the gto time we're really 1043 00:43:00,859 --> 00:42:57,420 crushing it as a field and making the 1044 00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:00,869 cosmologists very angry at us which I 1045 00:43:05,359 --> 00:43:03,450 hear far too often that we've got 1046 00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:05,369 roughly half of these are actually 1047 00:43:11,870 --> 00:43:09,210 smaller planets and I'm defining smaller 1048 00:43:13,970 --> 00:43:11,880 here coming from the water 1:07 which is 1049 00:43:15,620 --> 00:43:13,980 actually a fairly large world very 1050 00:43:16,910 --> 00:43:15,630 nicely inflated we're gonna have lots of 1051 00:43:20,660 --> 00:43:16,920 photons from that one that one's gonna 1052 00:43:23,240 --> 00:43:20,670 be nice observation down through to that 1053 00:43:25,249 --> 00:43:23,250 Trappist one system that I showed you so 1054 00:43:28,819 --> 00:43:25,259 we're getting GTO 1055 00:43:30,710 --> 00:43:28,829 guaranteed observations of all of these 1056 00:43:32,720 --> 00:43:30,720 different worlds and the black dots up 1057 00:43:34,609 --> 00:43:32,730 here represents the the larger planets 1058 00:43:36,259 --> 00:43:34,619 that we'll be looking at and put in 1059 00:43:38,450 --> 00:43:36,269 brackets over here whether it's a 1060 00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:38,460 transit or eclipse so we're getting a 1061 00:43:42,140 --> 00:43:40,890 mixture of transit observations which 1062 00:43:44,089 --> 00:43:42,150 are the ones I've been showing you today 1063 00:43:45,650 --> 00:43:44,099 I've really been only showing you the 1064 00:43:47,839 --> 00:43:45,660 transmission spectrum the absorption 1065 00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:47,849 spectrum of these planetary atmospheres 1066 00:43:51,410 --> 00:43:49,890 if they have one but emission is so 1067 00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:51,420 important for trying to understand the 1068 00:43:54,740 --> 00:43:53,490 temperature structure if they have an 1069 00:43:56,660 --> 00:43:54,750 atmosphere what's the temperature 1070 00:43:58,460 --> 00:43:56,670 structure if they don't can we get any 1071 00:44:00,650 --> 00:43:58,470 kind of measurement from the surface at 1072 00:44:02,299 --> 00:44:00,660 all and we got lots of eclipse 1073 00:44:04,009 --> 00:44:02,309 measurements and a phase curve up here 1074 00:44:06,259 --> 00:44:04,019 as well for some of these smaller ones 1075 00:44:08,329 --> 00:44:06,269 this is because I couldn't find the mass 1076 00:44:10,039 --> 00:44:08,339 of this planet or this planet so I'm not 1077 00:44:11,900 --> 00:44:10,049 really sure where they lie but I will 1078 00:44:14,940 --> 00:44:11,910 definitely update it once I have better 1079 00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:14,950 numbers on those and 1080 00:44:19,319 --> 00:44:17,170 to give you an idea of what those James 1081 00:44:23,040 --> 00:44:19,329 Webb observations might look like here's 1082 00:44:25,849 --> 00:44:23,050 a very complicated slide so on the top 1083 00:44:28,290 --> 00:44:25,859 we're seeing some transmission spectra 1084 00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:28,300 simulations these are partial battaglia 1085 00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:30,130 you can see various different 1086 00:44:34,859 --> 00:44:32,290 combinations of gases and what we might 1087 00:44:40,829 --> 00:44:34,869 see for this poetry atmosphere this is 1088 00:44:42,329 --> 00:44:40,839 the most kind of optimistic version of 1089 00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:42,339 the transmission spectra we will be 1090 00:44:47,630 --> 00:44:43,930 measuring with the GG program which is 1091 00:44:50,819 --> 00:44:47,640 led by Nicole Lewis we will be getting 4 1092 00:44:53,310 --> 00:44:50,829 full transit observations of Travis 1e 1093 00:44:55,950 --> 00:44:53,320 with the prism which will allow us to 1094 00:44:57,930 --> 00:44:55,960 get the full spectrum from point six out 1095 00:44:59,880 --> 00:44:57,940 to five microns in one shot while we 1096 00:45:02,130 --> 00:44:59,890 gain four of those to get this 1097 00:45:04,140 --> 00:45:02,140 uncertainty compared to what we measured 1098 00:45:06,569 --> 00:45:04,150 with Hubble with two so you can see 1099 00:45:08,220 --> 00:45:06,579 we're going to learn something even if 1100 00:45:12,210 --> 00:45:08,230 it's a bowling ball we'll learn that 1101 00:45:14,310 --> 00:45:12,220 it's a very precise bowling ball so this 1102 00:45:16,020 --> 00:45:14,320 is really really exciting and then we 1103 00:45:18,420 --> 00:45:16,030 heard a little bit earlier but Caroline 1104 00:45:20,730 --> 00:45:18,430 Molly's got an excellent paper in 2017 1105 00:45:21,870 --> 00:45:20,740 looking through at the difference in 1106 00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:21,880 motions that you can get and really 1107 00:45:25,890 --> 00:45:23,530 importantly looking at the thermal 1108 00:45:27,870 --> 00:45:25,900 component looking at the emission of 1109 00:45:29,700 --> 00:45:27,880 these planets and in fact out of the gto 1110 00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:29,710 program the trapper swamp eyes are only 1111 00:45:34,740 --> 00:45:32,650 looked at in emissions for Travis 1b so 1112 00:45:36,030 --> 00:45:34,750 if you want to put in any proposals to 1113 00:45:38,099 --> 00:45:36,040 look at any of the other planets in a 1114 00:45:40,500 --> 00:45:38,109 mission please do please put those 1115 00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:40,510 proposals in lead that charge trying to 1116 00:45:45,180 --> 00:45:43,210 get the information there and then some 1117 00:45:47,790 --> 00:45:45,190 recent work which we've got on some very 1118 00:45:50,670 --> 00:45:47,800 nice posters please go out and talk to 1119 00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:50,680 them which just came out on archive like 1120 00:45:55,650 --> 00:45:53,770 they said where we're looking at how the 1121 00:45:57,720 --> 00:45:55,660 emission can be measured for these 1122 00:45:59,309 --> 00:45:57,730 planets and what that tells us that's 1123 00:46:01,859 --> 00:45:59,319 the most important thing what does that 1124 00:46:03,300 --> 00:46:01,869 tell us we've got the models which come 1125 00:46:05,069 --> 00:46:03,310 from Eric and we've got the 1126 00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:05,079 observational constraints that we might 1127 00:46:08,819 --> 00:46:06,970 be able to get from Mansfield so please 1128 00:46:10,710 --> 00:46:08,829 go and see those posters in any time 1129 00:46:13,620 --> 00:46:10,720 that you have and have a chat for them 1130 00:46:16,620 --> 00:46:13,630 because this is so important we need to 1131 00:46:18,569 --> 00:46:16,630 predict and we need to simulate these 1132 00:46:21,059 --> 00:46:18,579 observations so that we can try and 1133 00:46:23,250 --> 00:46:21,069 understand these worlds and just to put 1134 00:46:26,370 --> 00:46:23,260 this in context I normally work giant 1135 00:46:28,500 --> 00:46:26,380 planets because I'm lazy this is much 1136 00:46:30,450 --> 00:46:28,510 much easier to measure this is 1137 00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:30,460 much easier to measure it's very nice to 1138 00:46:34,110 --> 00:46:32,170 see when you do a data analysis and this 1139 00:46:37,770 --> 00:46:34,120 big massive water bump comes out it's 1140 00:46:41,430 --> 00:46:37,780 beautiful this is the scale of that very 1141 00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:41,440 very optimistic travis 1e transmission 1142 00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:44,650 the spectrum I just showed you but to 1143 00:46:49,140 --> 00:46:46,330 still put that in context the 1144 00:46:52,020 --> 00:46:49,150 uncertainty on that with tiny we can 1145 00:46:53,580 --> 00:46:52,030 measure this with James Webb you can 1146 00:46:56,370 --> 00:46:53,590 measure the relative difference between 1147 00:46:58,050 --> 00:46:56,380 this massive feature which to be honest 1148 00:47:03,090 --> 00:46:58,060 we're going to get in such good detail 1149 00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:03,100 I'm very excited about that yeah I don't 1150 00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:07,450 know anything but we can do this we can 1151 00:47:12,990 --> 00:47:11,650 measure these with James Webb so we've 1152 00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:13,000 got really big questions 1153 00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:14,650 compared to hot Jupiters it's not 1154 00:47:21,300 --> 00:47:17,410 impossible I hope I've convinced you of 1155 00:47:23,730 --> 00:47:21,310 that we need multi cycle programs to 1156 00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:23,740 really push this field to smaller 1157 00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:25,810 planets we need multi cycle programs 1158 00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:28,210 which go back and look at these planets 1159 00:47:31,710 --> 00:47:29,650 and that's got to be a coordinated 1160 00:47:36,090 --> 00:47:31,720 effort this has got to be a coordinated 1161 00:47:37,530 --> 00:47:36,100 effort across the community can think 1162 00:47:38,730 --> 00:47:37,540 about when you're writing your proposals 1163 00:47:40,470 --> 00:47:38,740 or thinking about the models that you're 1164 00:47:42,630 --> 00:47:40,480 gonna be running can any of the current 1165 00:47:44,220 --> 00:47:42,640 GTO programs can any of the current 1166 00:47:46,470 --> 00:47:44,230 observations that will be getting 1167 00:47:48,720 --> 00:47:46,480 Darren's help with that can they help 1168 00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:48,730 with your proposal can may help really 1169 00:47:53,450 --> 00:47:51,090 push forward what you want to be doing 1170 00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:53,460 we need to understand what the noise is 1171 00:47:57,270 --> 00:47:55,570 associated with this we saw some some 1172 00:47:59,100 --> 00:47:57,280 talks where we can learn about the noise 1173 00:48:01,620 --> 00:47:59,110 the noise is important it really 1174 00:48:02,970 --> 00:48:01,630 restricts what we can do where is the 1175 00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:02,980 noise for on this and how does that 1176 00:48:06,660 --> 00:48:04,210 limit us and that's something we're 1177 00:48:08,190 --> 00:48:06,670 going to learn when we're on Sky so make 1178 00:48:14,460 --> 00:48:08,200 sure you're keeping that in mind when 1179 00:48:16,590 --> 00:48:14,470 you upgrade your models later on and can 1180 00:48:19,140 --> 00:48:16,600 we get phrase curves of non transiting 1181 00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:19,150 planets really think about that that's a 1182 00:48:21,990 --> 00:48:20,530 really important one we're talking about 1183 00:48:24,090 --> 00:48:22,000 the temperature structure it's not just 1184 00:48:26,490 --> 00:48:24,100 the transiting planets here in terms of 1185 00:48:27,630 --> 00:48:26,500 that characterization if we want to try 1186 00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:27,640 and understand these larval words a 1187 00:48:30,540 --> 00:48:28,570 little bit more is there a non 1188 00:48:32,340 --> 00:48:30,550 transferring one that we can use so I 1189 00:48:33,810 --> 00:48:32,350 think that there's a lot of combinations 1190 00:48:36,720 --> 00:48:33,820 of things across the community that can 1191 00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:36,730 do and it's really moving further 1192 00:48:40,770 --> 00:48:38,290 forward um for that timeline that I 1193 00:48:42,279 --> 00:48:40,780 showed you into that era of the giant 1194 00:48:45,159 --> 00:48:42,289 telescopes the extreme 1195 00:48:48,339 --> 00:48:45,169 large telescopes and looking at both 1196 00:48:49,659 --> 00:48:48,349 their reflected and the thermal from 1197 00:48:52,749 --> 00:48:49,669 these planets we need to be looking in 1198 00:48:57,099 --> 00:48:52,759 the optical Hubble is not dead Hubble is 1199 00:48:59,169 --> 00:48:57,109 still kicking around please use it to 1200 00:49:01,839 --> 00:48:59,179 look in the optical he needs the optical 1201 00:49:03,579 --> 00:49:01,849 measurement and the ELT is on the ground 1202 00:49:06,609 --> 00:49:03,589 are going to do a fantastic job of 1203 00:49:09,069 --> 00:49:06,619 looking at reflected light from both you 1204 00:49:12,309 --> 00:49:09,079 know directly image planets as well 1205 00:49:13,779 --> 00:49:12,319 which is going to teach us a lot try and 1206 00:49:15,429 --> 00:49:13,789 understand how they fit into those 1207 00:49:16,989 --> 00:49:15,439 matter atheist relations and if we can 1208 00:49:21,479 --> 00:49:16,999 really refine those measurements we can 1209 00:49:24,489 --> 00:49:21,489 possibly estimate a good radius on them 1210 00:49:27,339 --> 00:49:24,499 own eat the EOPS can realistically get 1211 00:49:29,259 --> 00:49:27,349 both of these and we need to make sure 1212 00:49:31,059 --> 00:49:29,269 that we're not just focusing on the 1213 00:49:32,949 --> 00:49:31,069 space based kind of transmission studies 1214 00:49:34,779 --> 00:49:32,959 we need to be looking towards what we 1215 00:49:36,429 --> 00:49:34,789 can do to combine the phase space 1216 00:49:37,870 --> 00:49:36,439 where's the overlap between transiting 1217 00:49:39,579 --> 00:49:37,880 planets and directly which planets can 1218 00:49:40,959 --> 00:49:39,589 we use that one of the things that I 1219 00:49:45,489 --> 00:49:40,969 think's really interesting to consider 1220 00:49:48,249 --> 00:49:45,499 is the friends of hot Jupiters or the 1221 00:49:49,779 --> 00:49:48,259 the small transiting planets that we 1222 00:49:52,059 --> 00:49:49,789 have and there's an a radial velocity 1223 00:49:53,679 --> 00:49:52,069 planet further out can we use the Yale 1224 00:49:55,559 --> 00:49:53,689 piece look at planets where we've got an 1225 00:49:58,419 --> 00:49:55,569 inner transiting planet and an outer 1226 00:50:00,640 --> 00:49:58,429 radius rotc planet can we use that to 1227 00:50:03,959 --> 00:50:00,650 understand each of them in turn and how 1228 00:50:06,039 --> 00:50:03,969 they might have evolved over time and 1229 00:50:07,599 --> 00:50:06,049 obviously looking even further into the 1230 00:50:09,399 --> 00:50:07,609 future it doesn't even fit a or near 1231 00:50:12,309 --> 00:50:09,409 that time line we're talking about 1232 00:50:14,499 --> 00:50:12,319 currently at NASA is asking for 1233 00:50:17,109 --> 00:50:14,509 information on these three really 1234 00:50:20,049 --> 00:50:17,119 benchmark missions the origins which 1235 00:50:22,749 --> 00:50:20,059 will be a trancing kind of based 1236 00:50:24,699 --> 00:50:22,759 exoplanet mission we've got habits which 1237 00:50:26,319 --> 00:50:24,709 we'll be looking at mostly directly 1238 00:50:29,739 --> 00:50:26,329 image by and Louvois 1239 00:50:31,809 --> 00:50:29,749 which will do whatever it can do with 1240 00:50:33,789 --> 00:50:31,819 the biggest mirror it can possibly build 1241 00:50:36,640 --> 00:50:33,799 in space without breaking the budget of 1242 00:50:38,409 --> 00:50:36,650 the entire world so there's a number of 1243 00:50:40,329 --> 00:50:38,419 people here that can talk to you about 1244 00:50:42,489 --> 00:50:40,339 that please go find them and chat about 1245 00:50:48,489 --> 00:50:42,499 those missions I'm afraid I'm not not an 1246 00:50:50,259 --> 00:50:48,499 expert on that we do have a poster by by 1247 00:50:53,019 --> 00:50:50,269 ty and he can tell you a lot about 1248 00:50:54,819 --> 00:50:53,029 habits and I definitely cannot so direct 1249 00:50:56,110 --> 00:50:54,829 your questions to him but I want to 1250 00:50:58,870 --> 00:50:56,120 leave you with 1251 00:51:01,270 --> 00:50:58,880 this horribleness these are outstanding 1252 00:51:02,470 --> 00:51:01,280 questions please if some of the 1253 00:51:06,310 --> 00:51:02,480 outstanding question I think this week 1254 00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:06,320 we see and applause about standing 1255 00:51:10,180 --> 00:51:07,850 questions that we need to answer as a 1256 00:51:12,100 --> 00:51:10,190 community and it really stopped talking 1257 00:51:13,780 --> 00:51:12,110 more of the giant planets where which 1258 00:51:15,250 --> 00:51:13,790 thing to look at those formation markers 1259 00:51:16,690 --> 00:51:15,260 can we use the c2 officio the 1260 00:51:18,250 --> 00:51:16,700 metallicity of these hydrogen helium 1261 00:51:19,750 --> 00:51:18,260 dominates that says where does that 1262 00:51:23,260 --> 00:51:19,760 break down whether the hydrogen helium 1263 00:51:25,090 --> 00:51:23,270 lift of these planets break down what 1264 00:51:27,910 --> 00:51:25,100 makes up the atmospheres where is that 1265 00:51:29,410 --> 00:51:27,920 methane can we use web in the 3.3 micron 1266 00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:29,420 region where it's more dominant and we 1267 00:51:33,130 --> 00:51:31,130 should be able to see it to really 1268 00:51:34,870 --> 00:51:33,140 search for those signatures that's going 1269 00:51:36,190 --> 00:51:34,880 to be really interesting for us to try 1270 00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:36,200 and understand the dynamical and 1271 00:51:41,410 --> 00:51:39,410 critical nature of this planet do the 1272 00:51:44,140 --> 00:51:41,420 traffic I don't even have an atmosphere 1273 00:51:47,590 --> 00:51:44,150 for a number of the move we will be able 1274 00:51:49,180 --> 00:51:47,600 to answer that and I'm not sure what 1275 00:51:54,250 --> 00:51:49,190 happens when we do forget your models 1276 00:51:56,890 --> 00:51:54,260 ready how can we classify them and is it 1277 00:51:58,840 --> 00:51:56,900 important then we classify them how 1278 00:52:01,990 --> 00:51:58,850 important are those classifications in 1279 00:52:04,630 --> 00:52:02,000 terms of understanding the demographic 1280 00:52:06,790 --> 00:52:04,640 of planets out there we want to 1281 00:52:08,650 --> 00:52:06,800 understand how likely it is for a solar 1282 00:52:11,530 --> 00:52:08,660 system to form how likely is it to have 1283 00:52:14,170 --> 00:52:11,540 a system without a super elf or mini 1284 00:52:16,870 --> 00:52:14,180 Neptune we've got this gap everyone else 1285 00:52:19,300 --> 00:52:16,880 seems to have one why don't we how can 1286 00:52:21,190 --> 00:52:19,310 we try and understand what these planets 1287 00:52:23,140 --> 00:52:21,200 are made of to really fill in the 1288 00:52:26,410 --> 00:52:23,150 information we're missing from our solar 1289 00:52:27,460 --> 00:52:26,420 system and then another thing I really 1290 00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:27,470 want you to think about so I want to 1291 00:52:31,570 --> 00:52:29,450 break these I don't want them to be 1292 00:52:33,340 --> 00:52:31,580 fundamental limits but these are the 1293 00:52:36,190 --> 00:52:33,350 ones that I came up with as fundamental 1294 00:52:37,630 --> 00:52:36,200 limits and I hope that they're not so we 1295 00:52:40,540 --> 00:52:37,640 need to work out how we can break these 1296 00:52:42,160 --> 00:52:40,550 as with much as we possibly can stellar 1297 00:52:44,050 --> 00:52:42,170 granulation is going to be a problem we 1298 00:52:47,230 --> 00:52:44,060 don't know that stars as well as we 1299 00:52:50,530 --> 00:52:47,240 think we know them we need to know what 1300 00:52:52,180 --> 00:52:50,540 these stars are doing is there a perfect 1301 00:52:53,470 --> 00:52:52,190 target people keep saying if we find the 1302 00:52:55,090 --> 00:52:53,480 perfect target we'll be able to do this 1303 00:52:55,510 --> 00:52:55,100 that and the other what's the perfect 1304 00:52:56,770 --> 00:52:55,520 target 1305 00:52:58,390 --> 00:52:56,780 where am i looking for this perfect 1306 00:52:59,530 --> 00:52:58,400 target what does it consist of how do 1307 00:53:02,110 --> 00:52:59,540 you know it's a perfect target until 1308 00:53:03,970 --> 00:53:02,120 you've looked at it it's an absolute 1309 00:53:05,500 --> 00:53:03,980 nightmare of a phrase and it's real 1310 00:53:06,880 --> 00:53:05,510 fundamental limit for a lot of the 1311 00:53:09,790 --> 00:53:06,890 models that I'm saying and I'm just like 1312 00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:09,800 what's the perfect time what do you want 1313 00:53:14,020 --> 00:53:11,450 what do you need to see and how can we 1314 00:53:20,290 --> 00:53:14,030 most efficiently find that perfect 1315 00:53:38,470 --> 00:53:20,300 target and time time is a fundamental 1316 00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:38,480 limit brittle and Omega Oh a lot of 1317 00:53:43,210 --> 00:53:41,690 question all no it's okay we have some 1318 00:53:44,770 --> 00:53:43,220 time there's a couple in the front this 1319 00:53:49,090 --> 00:53:44,780 one over here's one in the middle of 1320 00:53:52,420 --> 00:53:49,100 thing they all went up at once so ever 1321 00:53:55,690 --> 00:53:52,430 you can get to this frame just quickly 1322 00:53:58,360 --> 00:53:55,700 yeah you just mind you guys okay 1323 00:53:59,890 --> 00:53:58,370 you mentioned GPO and it sounded like 1324 00:54:03,040 --> 00:53:59,900 that means something about guaranteed 1325 00:54:07,650 --> 00:54:03,050 could you say what the acronym is what 1326 00:54:10,210 --> 00:54:07,660 it what it means and what fraction of 1327 00:54:12,700 --> 00:54:10,220 whatever is guaranteed what non 1328 00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:12,710 guarantee it is and on previous missions 1329 00:54:19,060 --> 00:54:16,970 like Kepler and and Hubble what 1330 00:54:20,770 --> 00:54:19,070 observations came from guaranteed and 1331 00:54:22,300 --> 00:54:20,780 what came from non Gary that's a great 1332 00:54:24,430 --> 00:54:22,310 question sorry I didn't explain that a 1333 00:54:27,190 --> 00:54:24,440 little bit more so guaranteed time for 1334 00:54:29,230 --> 00:54:27,200 the James Webb Space Telescope is given 1335 00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:29,240 a long time ago to instrument teams 1336 00:54:36,630 --> 00:54:33,890 engineers and support institutions which 1337 00:54:40,690 --> 00:54:36,640 have supported the development and 1338 00:54:42,300 --> 00:54:40,700 implementation of telescope from I think 1339 00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:42,310 the James Webb ones date back to about 1340 00:54:48,940 --> 00:54:45,530 30-40 years so guaranteed time is 1341 00:54:51,220 --> 00:54:48,950 assigned in the first year of the 1342 00:54:52,570 --> 00:54:51,230 telescope's operation to various teams 1343 00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:52,580 who have worked on that telescope or 1344 00:54:56,740 --> 00:54:55,010 supported that telescope now this 1345 00:55:00,640 --> 00:54:56,750 happened with the Hubble Space Telescope 1346 00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:00,650 as well when Hubble launched in 1990 1347 00:55:05,310 --> 00:55:03,770 there weren't xx to look at that was no 1348 00:55:06,820 --> 00:55:05,320 exit planet studies that were done 1349 00:55:08,830 --> 00:55:06,830 specifically on the Hubble Space 1350 00:55:10,450 --> 00:55:08,840 Telescope as part of guaranteed time 1351 00:55:11,850 --> 00:55:10,460 assigned to those people that worked on 1352 00:55:14,470 --> 00:55:11,860 it the Hubble Space Telescope 1353 00:55:18,160 --> 00:55:14,480 observations really started kicking in 1354 00:55:19,930 --> 00:55:18,170 in the 90s the mid 90s and actually we 1355 00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:19,940 didn't know that they had made the 1356 00:55:23,500 --> 00:55:21,530 planet observations until the early 1357 00:55:26,050 --> 00:55:23,510 2000s when someone reanalyzed 1358 00:55:27,940 --> 00:55:26,060 data so there's a lot of things that we 1359 00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:27,950 can do now with the James Webb Space a 1360 00:55:31,300 --> 00:55:29,810 script that we were never ever able to 1361 00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:31,310 do with the James Webb with the Hubble 1362 00:55:35,710 --> 00:55:33,650 Space Telescope also a number of the 1363 00:55:37,330 --> 00:55:35,720 instruments and many of the modes that 1364 00:55:40,570 --> 00:55:37,340 we'll be using on designed specifically 1365 00:55:43,630 --> 00:55:40,580 for us now we can really use that 1366 00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:43,640 information to push forward the data 1367 00:55:50,440 --> 00:55:47,570 analysis era of exoplanet there is still 1368 00:55:52,270 --> 00:55:50,450 after the GTO time that ers early 1369 00:55:54,240 --> 00:55:52,280 released science time and the transiting 1370 00:55:57,550 --> 00:55:54,250 exoplanet community has the biggest 1371 00:55:59,349 --> 00:55:57,560 beautifulest chunk of that time and they 1372 00:56:01,510 --> 00:55:59,359 will be looking at the full transmission 1373 00:56:03,580 --> 00:56:01,520 spectrum of a hot Jupiter they will be 1374 00:56:06,370 --> 00:56:03,590 doing the phase curve of I believe 1375 00:56:08,410 --> 00:56:06,380 what's 43 B in the infrared with Mary's 1376 00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:08,420 instrument and they will be doing trying 1377 00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:10,490 to test that fundamental limit of the 1378 00:56:14,500 --> 00:56:12,530 noise floor of James Webb with a really 1379 00:56:15,910 --> 00:56:14,510 bright target really pushing the limits 1380 00:56:18,160 --> 00:56:15,920 to try and understand the noise floor of 1381 00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:18,170 the instrument itself so those programs 1382 00:56:22,270 --> 00:56:20,690 the GTO programs are programs and they 1383 00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:22,280 will have proprietary time for a year 1384 00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:25,330 the ers program is open to everybody and 1385 00:56:31,390 --> 00:56:28,130 we encourage every single one of you to 1386 00:56:34,180 --> 00:56:31,400 join the ers team join us we need your 1387 00:56:36,310 --> 00:56:34,190 help we want your help and we want to 1388 00:56:38,470 --> 00:56:36,320 get as many people as possible involved 1389 00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:38,480 in the community in the James Webb time 1390 00:56:42,310 --> 00:56:40,010 that we'll get so that we can understand 1391 00:56:44,859 --> 00:56:42,320 the instrument now the other time is 1392 00:56:46,720 --> 00:56:44,869 guest observer time so guest observer 1393 00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:46,730 time is he think that you want to 1394 00:56:50,170 --> 00:56:48,650 propose for and the way that it's going 1395 00:56:52,630 --> 00:56:50,180 to work is it's going to respond to 1396 00:56:55,450 --> 00:56:52,640 proposal pressure so the more you ask 1397 00:56:57,670 --> 00:56:55,460 the more proposals you put in the more 1398 00:56:59,530 --> 00:56:57,680 the community is going to get out now I 1399 00:57:01,390 --> 00:56:59,540 can't guarantee for a single person if 1400 00:57:03,910 --> 00:57:01,400 you put 50 in you're gonna get a 1401 00:57:05,500 --> 00:57:03,920 proportional amount out from that they 1402 00:57:08,620 --> 00:57:05,510 can't guarantee that but the community 1403 00:57:12,340 --> 00:57:08,630 as a whole will be getting as much out 1404 00:57:15,820 --> 00:57:12,350 as it pushes pushes pressure on the 1405 00:57:18,190 --> 00:57:15,830 proposals to get that time and as I as I 1406 00:57:21,430 --> 00:57:18,200 said with the GT eight I'm actually out 1407 00:57:24,700 --> 00:57:21,440 of a hundred percent of GTO time 27 1408 00:57:26,650 --> 00:57:24,710 percent is going to exoplanet and that 1409 00:57:29,170 --> 00:57:26,660 would never ever have been fought off 1410 00:57:31,420 --> 00:57:29,180 before it wasn't thought of at all when 1411 00:57:35,820 --> 00:57:31,430 the GTA to come was first assigned so 1412 00:57:40,110 --> 00:57:38,130 no no no no not to talk nozzle there's 1413 00:57:41,700 --> 00:57:40,120 tons of guests observer time in in the 1414 00:57:43,890 --> 00:57:41,710 first year this is a very small fraction 1415 00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:43,900 of that very small fraction of that 1416 00:57:48,150 --> 00:57:46,210 first year there is going to be a huge 1417 00:57:49,740 --> 00:57:48,160 amount of time for community and in 1418 00:57:51,420 --> 00:57:49,750 January where you hear the call you will 1419 00:57:52,890 --> 00:57:51,430 hear exactly how many hours they are 1420 00:57:59,390 --> 00:57:52,900 signing in that first year to the 1421 00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:03,270 oh you already have it John I'm sorry 1422 00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:06,370 jonathan fourney UC santa cruz i was in 1423 00:58:09,870 --> 00:58:07,810 terms of knowing nice star i was really 1424 00:58:12,140 --> 00:58:09,880 taken by the this for this for the 1425 00:58:15,090 --> 00:58:12,150 Trappist parent star that you found a 1426 00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:15,100 tiny filling fraction of extremely hot 1427 00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:16,570 material like fifty eight hundred 1428 00:58:21,210 --> 00:58:18,730 degrees but like one percent of the star 1429 00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:21,220 is that fairly robust and because if 1430 00:58:24,150 --> 00:58:22,810 that has that being true for the M 1431 00:58:25,620 --> 00:58:24,160 dwarfs typically I think that's a really 1432 00:58:27,450 --> 00:58:25,630 interesting finding about the stars 1433 00:58:29,670 --> 00:58:27,460 themselves but the vacuole a or 1434 00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:29,680 something would be so hot yeah I had 1435 00:58:32,820 --> 00:58:31,570 exactly the same question when we did 1436 00:58:34,350 --> 00:58:32,830 the analysis for the analysis was 1437 00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:34,360 actually I should say thank you to my 1438 00:58:38,520 --> 00:58:36,730 team it was a huge team of people we had 1439 00:58:39,660 --> 00:58:38,530 stellar physicists who were working a 1440 00:58:41,580 --> 00:58:39,670 lot on that side of things 1441 00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:41,590 we had planetary scientists and we had 1442 00:58:45,450 --> 00:58:43,570 observers and theorists working on all 1443 00:58:47,130 --> 00:58:45,460 aspects of this there was a massive team 1444 00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:47,140 effort in terms of that really hot 1445 00:58:52,770 --> 00:58:50,290 portion of the star it seems like yes 1446 00:58:56,070 --> 00:58:52,780 according to the surfaces it is it is 1447 00:58:59,070 --> 00:58:56,080 possible to have that the mechanism for 1448 00:59:00,990 --> 00:58:59,080 that and why you would see it on a photo 1449 00:59:03,540 --> 00:59:01,000 steric level is very interesting and 1450 00:59:06,390 --> 00:59:03,550 that I do not know but I know exactly 1451 00:59:08,280 --> 00:59:06,400 who to point you to please have a 1452 00:59:10,230 --> 00:59:08,290 discussion with Jeff Valenti it's always 1453 00:59:14,370 --> 00:59:10,240 very entertaining to explain why 1454 00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:14,380 Travis's is so interesting but there's 1455 00:59:19,230 --> 00:59:16,210 another there's another paper and 1456 00:59:22,260 --> 00:59:19,240 another project done by Brett Morris who 1457 00:59:25,410 --> 00:59:22,270 also looked at the Trappist one star and 1458 00:59:28,140 --> 00:59:25,420 found that it's plausible that there is 1459 00:59:32,310 --> 00:59:28,150 this incredibly hot and they suggest 1460 00:59:34,860 --> 00:59:32,320 it's magnetically active so this is not 1461 00:59:40,350 --> 00:59:34,870 a search that's found that that best fit 1462 00:59:41,490 --> 00:59:40,360 to the star as well okay women um I have 1463 00:59:44,010 --> 00:59:41,500 a comment and a question 1464 00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:44,020 further comment just to come back on 1465 00:59:48,540 --> 00:59:46,930 Trappist and and what we saw in the in 1466 00:59:51,900 --> 00:59:48,550 the transit 1467 00:59:53,790 --> 00:59:51,910 to be exact it's not hydrogen atmosphere 1468 00:59:55,590 --> 00:59:53,800 that is rolled out it's a cloud free 1469 00:59:59,490 --> 00:59:55,600 hydrogen element yeah I think we we 1470 01:00:04,620 --> 00:59:59,500 still have to you know have the GG 2014 1471 01:00:06,330 --> 01:00:04,630 Milan I rec France for some of the 1472 01:00:07,650 --> 01:00:06,340 planets we can rule out a lot more and 1473 01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:07,660 some of them yeah we can't rule out a 1474 01:00:12,710 --> 01:00:10,690 fair amount at all be in observations 1475 01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:12,720 we've got just aren't precise enough 1476 01:00:15,870 --> 01:00:14,650 some of them I really recommend reading 1477 01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:15,880 that paper that's already go triggers 1478 01:00:20,010 --> 01:00:17,770 and now that will show you exactly what 1479 01:00:22,140 --> 01:00:20,020 kinds of combinations of cloud haze and 1480 01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:22,150 hydrogen helium percentage we can all 1481 01:00:28,740 --> 01:00:24,850 out for those okay and for the question 1482 01:00:31,830 --> 01:00:28,750 is I've seen going around a letter to 1483 01:00:36,330 --> 01:00:31,840 stsci about maybe a servicing mission to 1484 01:00:39,180 --> 01:00:36,340 Hubble or Oh white paper yes that's a 1485 01:00:43,080 --> 01:00:39,190 why do you think there is any chain that 1486 01:00:47,670 --> 01:00:43,090 this can fly I do not speak officially 1487 01:00:50,550 --> 01:00:47,680 for Space Telescope in a capacity and 1488 01:00:54,859 --> 01:00:50,560 unofficially unofficially yeah god 1489 01:00:58,590 --> 01:00:56,910 alright well with that we're out of time 1490 01:00:59,470 --> 01:00:58,600 so let's give Hannah another round of